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中国的乙烯产量将超过在未来几年一千点〇 〇万吨将旅游业发展迅速。然而，由于国内乙烯原料生产的所有石油来，高油价降低了行业的利润率日渐稀少的石油资源，限制了行业的发展。为此，我们必须审慎科学地制定发展计划，以确保在中国乙烯工业的持续稳定发展。

能力

了在中国生产乙烯10万多家大型石化企业吨迅速增加18个，超过20万吨的有14个，50多万的企业已有10万吨。中国的乙烯生产主要集中在两个主要石化公司和石油公司。去年，中石化乙烯产量达到六百三十三万千吨，为67.3占全国产量的百分之;中石油乙烯产量达到二百○六万七千九吨的22％，占全国总产量。

中国的1月，今年9月，累计乙烯产量达到七百七十八点六八零万吨，同比增长14.7％，较上年同期的历史最好水平。预计今年全年产量将超过1000万吨，将有可能达到10.5万吨，超过11％的增长。 “十一五”期间，中国的乙烯生产能力也将有较大幅度上升。截至2006年底中国已建立了上海，南京，三个生产能力一百点○○万吨/年乙烯生产基地，茂名。到2006年中国的乙烯生产能力，到2010年结束984万吨/年，可能有近10万吨/年乙烯生产能力，在未来几年内兴建这将成为快速增长的乙烯。

消费的快速增长

乙烯主要用于制造聚乙烯，是一种化学产品（如二氯化乙烯，环氧乙烷，乙二醇等多个品种的产品）的原料。近年来，超过了乙烯下游产品的发展，我国乙烯消费量的快速增长，2006年生产九零零零零零零吨飙升至九百三十九点〇万吨，占百分之94.4，在2000年的增长，而过去两年平均每年增长达20％以上。

对中国的聚乙烯乙烯总消费量的乙烯消费量65％。聚乙烯产量去年上升到五百九十九万二千九吨，占百分之94.3，在2000年的增长，以11.7％的年率增长6年。不久的将来，中国的聚乙烯生产将继续保持较高增长速度，国内市场今年预计为约一千零五十○点零万吨乙烯聚乙烯约六百八十〇点零零万吨生产总需求的其他化学产品，约370.0万吨。

挑战，形势严峻

近年来，虽然国内乙烯市场的迅速发展，企业产销两旺，但存在的问题和潜在危机，我们应该有一个清醒的认识。

乙烯的生产原料都来自中国石油石脑油，中国的石油进口量约占消费量的一半来。近年来，国际市场石油价格，在中东地区的紧张局势，以及市场对能源供应的担忧推动，今年国际石油价格不断创出历史新高，纽约原油期货价格已经接近100美元/桶大关。高油价直接提高乙烯生产成本，大大降低了利润率。同时，世界石油资源日益稀缺，而且是对乙烯工业造成严重影响。

为此，国内企业必须在科学发展观下的情况，指导，把握有利时机，以避免不利因素，审慎科学地制定和实施发展计划，以确保中国的乙烯工业持续稳定发展。

China Ethylene Industry Development of the first three quarters of a challenge

China’s ethylene production will exceed 10 million tons over the next few years will be a fast growing industry. However, due to internal ethylene production of raw materials all come from oil, high oil prices reduced the industry’s profit margins increasingly scarce oil resources restrict the development of the industry. To this end, we must be prudent to scientifically formulate development plans to ensure that the ethylene industry in China sustained and stable development.

capacity

a rapid increase in ethylene production in China in more than 100,000 tons of large-scale petrochemical enterprises have 18, in more than 200,000 tons has 14, more than 500,000 tons of enterprises already 10. China’s ethylene production mainly concentrated in two major petrochemical and oil companies. Last year, Sinopec Ethylene output reached 6.331 million tons, accounting for 67.3 percent of national output; Medium oil ethylene production reached 2,067,900 tons, accounting for 22% of national output.

China’s January-September this year, the cumulative ethylene production reached 7,786,800 tons, up 14.7% over the same period are the best levels in history. Expected full-year production will exceed 10 million tons mark, it is possible to reach 10.5 million tons, an increase of more than 11%. “Eleventh Five-Year” period, China’s ethylene production capacity will also have a big increase. At the end of 2006 China has built in Shanghai, Nanjing and Maoming in the three production capacity 1,000,000 tons / year ethylene production base. By the end of 2006 China’s ethylene production capacity has 9,840,000 tons / year, by 2010 there may be near 10 million tons / year ethylene production capacity built over the next few years this will become a fast growing ethylene.

the rapid growth of consumption

ethylene mainly used in the manufacture of polyethylene, is the production of a variety of chemical products (such as ethylene dichloride, ethylene oxide, ethylene glycol, etc.) of raw materials. In recent years, with ethylene production of downstream products of development, our country’s consumption of ethylene rapid growth in 2006 exceeded 9,000,000 tons soared to 9.39 million tons, representing 94.4 percent growth in 2000, while the last two years the average annual increase of up to 20 % or more.

about China’s polyethylene ethylene vinyl consumption of total consumption by 65%. Polyethylene production last year rose to 5,992,900 tons, representing 94.3 percent growth in 2000, 6 years at an annual rate of 11.7%. The near future, China’s polyethylene production will continue to maintain a relatively high rate of growth, the domestic market this year is expected to total demand for ethylene of about 10.5 million tons for polyethylene production of about 6,800,000 tons, for other chemical products to about 3,700,000 tons.

challenges facing a grim situation

Although in recent years the rapid development of the domestic ethylene market, enterprise sales booming, but the existing problems and potential crises, we should have a clear understanding.

ethylene production in China of raw materials all come from petroleum naphtha, China’s oil imports accounted for about half of consumption. In recent years, the international market oil prices, tensions in the Middle East, as well as market worries about energy supplies to promote this year, international oil prices reaching record highs repeatedly, New York crude oil futures prices have been close to 100 U.S. dollars / barrel mark. High oil prices directly enhance the ethylene production costs, significantly reduced the profit margins. At the same time, the growing scarcity of world oil resources, but also a serious impact on the ethylene industry.

To this end, domestic enterprises must be in the scientific development concept under the guidance of the situation and grasp the favorable opportunity to avoid the adverse factors, prudent to scientifically formulate and implement development plans to ensure that China’s ethylene industry continued to develop steadily. (07-11-9)