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发酵过程和包装生产过程检修不会影响主要品牌的生产没有什么效果。 2006年年度报告，2006年在葡萄酒生产速度的纪录高品质的产品，一个基本的葡萄酒增长了百分之51.66，比上年公司透露该公司基地的葡萄酒可以用来生产出比春季五粮水平产品的信息，目前市场上的情况，公司一出，全面，股票不匹配。

二千○七年半年度报告，披露了该公司的主要品牌“五粮液上半年约六八七○吨，为8.86％的增长”的销售。在高端酒市场的总体需求在增长，并指出，报告的销售增长了百分之8.86，或超过16整个白酒行业的增长水平％，甚至低于上半年，五粮液似乎更不寻常。

投资者，以满足今年的交流，该公司称，该品牌的主要目标全年的销量将达到12000吨，后来调整到1.15吨，这意味着对去年同期的主要品牌下半年销售额将增长30％以上。下半年以来，公司以主动进行管制物品，交易量的计划已一再降低，有能力实现这一目标，我们最初持怀疑态度。向上和向下，但该公司已多次表示，1.15万吨的目标没有任何问题，肯定会实现。我们判断公司上半年销售应该比实际水平六八七〇吨高，但它可在会计调整，这是由该公司二，三季度的水平，在波动幅度的原因造成的确认下半年虽然受管制货物，但是，该年度销售目标的完成并不困难。

3，公司坚持从返点的渠道利润，而不应依赖于价格

目前，贵州茅台经销商作出最大的利润，358计划和568〜在昔日的588元零售价格出厂价200型，也有超过五三八元大的价格，数量最低的经销商，有巨大的利润空间。

和五粮液价格在2003年大幅上升之后，100的价格体系一直处于反转状态，部分交易商往往比前低厂的价格，利润的主要来源和销售葡萄酒返点是由一系列奖项“拖带酒。”经销商获得88 /牵引到正常渠道销售的饮料瓶，价格体系混乱造成的。 2006年，该公司取消了多年，“拖酒”的政策，即葡萄酒“，”葡萄酒，500毫升一瓶52度的约418名园集团水晶五粮液经销商的价格，销售价格在420至终端〜480，分配有限的可用空间的利润。公司认为，经销商利润的主要来源应是销售终端网络覆盖范围等指标，该公司接受评估，获得公司返点的基础，传播应维持在关于支持费用支出水平，所以要这样做，以防止内部关系的出货量。如果庄家的利润过高，将培训商人，而不是行商，在家里坐的条纹，但是计划。如果企业发生的微小变化，经销商不会使市场。长期期待的经销商利润，不是一件好事了。

作为公司的理念的结果是经销商的利润主要来自返点是，根据经销商的销售返点不同的最大不同比例达到4％，或一瓶酒的销量将达到每16回扣，所以有些交易商有强烈的步行量，许多年终返点获得流动资金的冲动，分销商返点在产品成本内，以使价格体系破坏，并不能保证真正的收入渠道，但我们认为，这是很难五粮液理顺价格的主要原因之一。

渠道利润的自然资源，五粮液现在坚持“交易商的利润主要来自返点”模式分销商的好处有限，很难提高经销商的积极性，与该公司的货物在此阶段，销售控制策略相结合将受到一定程度。如果经销商不能保证长期利益，他们将转向其他酒类品牌，该公司的稳定和长期发展的渠道。

4，“1 +9 +8”将明确，但该公司对经销商的依赖决策质量

五粮液快速增长时期，通过买断商开发模式创造了数百个品牌，但品牌购买品牌管理和发展导致过度透支严重，损害了品牌的五粮液。五粮液压缩买品牌，从今年开始，拟建设“1 +9 +8”品牌战略（即，调整的世界的产品组合，一流的品牌（五粮液），9个全国性品牌和8个区域品牌进行四十五点〇万吨酒类商品生产）。在这个过程中，五粮液调整产品结构，逐步减少低产出价格酒，和一些低端基酒直接销售的酒，酒原始的方式，以减少高消费率，对公司的影响。目前，除了五粮液

主要品牌，品牌定位也比较混乱。公司“九”和“8”这是近几年的具体品牌还没有证实，在今年12月18日预计，经销商大会宣布“九”和“8”是特定品牌。

五，酒的资产被列为一个整体趋势，但目前看来难以实施

工资上涨，其雇员做临时工的社会保障中为一个新的汽车级干部，这些行为是最初随着市场的董事长唐桥的理解后，他烧掉“三火的办公室，”但我们了解，沟通了这些倡议的电路板是由董事长汪过蝽决定，唐恰在执行最聪明的前抵达，所以误会造成的市场。

五粮液公司时，在特殊条件下列出了一个特殊的所有制结构的形成，由于经营方五粮液作为股东不应从中获益，五粮液集团和五粮液之间的关联方交易的利润泄漏畸形没有在集团五粮液交易的越来越大的现实，近年来，该公司的股份通过关联交易流出本集团的利润。

五粮液作为历史遗留下来的关联交易，股权激励和其他系统的缺陷造成的问题将积极寻求解决办法。

政府考虑国内生产总值，销售收入，利润和税收评估和其他指标，作为一个整体需要平衡政府上市，公司的股东，宜宾五粮液市国资委的利益，希望保持绝对控制权。宜宾五粮液集团国有资产监督百分之百的控股，只有在管理水平评估组的评估五粮液政府，同集团本年度年终奖励五粮液城市管理，按照盈利。

和五粮液股份，宜宾市国资委，只有百分之67.04持有股份作为五粮液巨大的资本流动，当前的股票价格高，如果将酒集团其他资产，只要宜宾国资委，最高2增设方向〜3亿股，可实现，国资委的份额百分之71左右，而五粮液外流，必须随身携带的利润流向股东共享地方政府的福利，受到影响。

我们判断，如果没有整体上市的安排，该公司将没有足够的支持，并推高股价的表现，对股权管理为基础的激励将失去价值，让整体市场和公平为基础的鼓励，以实现短期的困难较大，上市公司通过关联方输送利益集团的交易现象，将继续保持。

六，盈利预测和投资评级
不考虑收购的股份公司的资产采取
，预计2007年五粮液2008年每股盈利为0.46元和0.60元，相当于95倍的市盈率和73倍相对较高水平。五粮液关联方交易，股权激励，整体上市的问题仍没有一个明确的时间表，一旦突破，将大大提高公司的估值水平。五粮液如果整个市场，不考虑股本摊薄，预计2008年的约0.90至0.95元左右的每股收益，我们认为目前的估值已经整体市场反应部分预期，但在整个市场没有得到充分执行，直到有一个市场空间一定程度上维持“推荐”评级。

Wuliangye: no time listed as a whole (b)

Fermentation processes and production processes of packaging overhaul will not affect the production of the main brands have little effect. 2006 Annual Report, the company disclosed in the company in 2006 wine production rate record high quality product, a basic wine grew 51.66 percent over the previous year, a base wine can be used to produce more than the spring五粮level products, with the company a comprehensive out-of-stocks currently on the market situation does not match.

2007 years semi-annual report, the company disclosed the first half of the main brand “Wuliangye” sales of around 6870 tons, an increase of 8.86%. The overall demand for high-end liquor market is growing, and Wuliangye out the first half of reported sales growth of 8.86 percent or even lower than 16% of the entire liquor industry the level of growth, seems more unusual.

investors to meet this year’s exchange, the company said full-year sales of the main objectives of the brand to reach 12,000 tons, and later adjusted to 11,500 tons, meaning that the second half of the main brands of the same period last year sales to rise more than 30 %. Since the second half, the company take the initiative to conduct controlled goods, the volume of dealers plan has been repeatedly reduced, the ability to realize this goal, we initially skeptical. Up and down but the company has repeatedly said that 11,500 tons of goals there is no problem, sure to be fulfilled. We judge the company first half sales should be higher than the actual level of 6870 tons, but it may make the confirmation in the accounting adjustments, which is caused by the company two, three-quarter margin of the reasons for fluctuations in the level of the second half although the controlled goods, However, the completion of the annual sales target is not difficult.

three, the company adhere to channel profits from返点, and should not rely on price

Currently, Guizhou Moutai dealers to make a maximum profit, 358 plans and 568 ~ within the ex-factory price of the retail price of 588 yuan 200 has the great price, the lowest number of dealers are also more than 538 yuan, have enormous profit margins.

and Wuliangye sharp price increases in 2003 after 100, the price system has been in a state of inversion, a group of dealers tend to be lower than ex-factory price, the main source of profits and sales are返点series awards by wine ” towing wine. ” Dealers get 88 / towing drink bottles into the regular channels of sales, resulting in the price system confusion. In 2006, the company canceled for many years, “towing liquor” policy, the words “wine with wine”, 500ml bottle of 52 degrees Wuliangye crystal dealer price about a group of 418 yuan, sales prices in the terminal between 420 ~ 480, distribution the profit margin of the limited space available. Company believes that the main source of profit for dealers should be based on sales, terminal, such as network coverage indicators acceptable to the company assessment, access to company返点, the spread should be maintained at the level of expenditure on support costs, so go to do to prevent shipments of internal relations. If the dealer profits are too high, will train tradesman, rather than peddler, sit at home was striped, but plan to. Happen if an enterprise small changes, dealers will not make the market. Long-term look to the dealer profit is not a good thing too.

as a result of the company’s philosophy is dealer profits were mainly from返点, according to distributor sales返点different for different ratio of the maximum to achieve sales of 4%, or a bottle of wine to reach 16 per rebate , so that some dealers have a strong walk volume, many year-end liquidity返点get the impulse, distributors返点included in product costs in order to make the price system damage, and can not guarantee that the real revenue channels, we believe that this is difficult to Wuliangye prices straighten out one of the main reasons.

channel profit natural resources, and Wuliangye now insist on the “dealer profits were mainly from返点” model to the distributors limited benefits, it is difficult to enhance the enthusiasm of dealers, combined with the company cargo control policy at this stage, sales will be affected to a certain degree. If dealers can not be guaranteed long-term benefits, they will be switched to other liquor brands, the company’s stability and long-term channel development.

four, “1 +9 +8″ will be clear, the quality of the decision of the company’s reliance on distributors

Wuliangye a period of rapid growth through buy-out model developed by dealers has created hundreds of brands, but brand buy brand management and development lead to excessive overdraft serious, so damaged the brand Wuliangye. Wuliangye compression bought brand, starting this year, proposed to build “1 +9 +8″ brand strategy (that is, adjust the product mix for a world-class brand (Wuliangye), nine national brands and eight regional brands to carry 450,000 tons of merchandise liquor production). During this process, Wuliangye adjust product structure, and gradually reduce the output of low-priced wine, and some low-end base liquor directly to the original way of liquor sales, liquor in order to reduce the high consumption rate the impact of the company. At present, apart from Wuliangye

main brand, the brand positioning is also a bit confusing. Company “Nine” and “8″ which are specific brand in recent years has not confirmed that is expected in December 18 this year, dealers Assembly declared that “Nine” and “8″ which are brand specific.

V. liquor assets are listed as a whole trend, but at present it seems difficult to implement

up wages for their employees to temporary workers to do the social security for middle-level cadres for a new car, these act was initially understood as the market chairman Tang Bridge burned after he took office of “Three fire,” but we understand that communicate the real chairman of the board of these initiatives are decided by Wang Guochun,唐恰cleverest in the implementation of pre-arrival, so misunderstanding caused by the market.

Wuliangye when the company is listed under special conditions the formation of a special ownership structure, as the operating side Wuliangye Group as a shareholder should not benefit, Wuliangye Group and Wuliangye deformity between the leakage of profits related party transactions have not been, in recent years Wuliangye increasing relevance of the transaction, shares of profits from the company through related party transactions outflow to the Group.

Wuliangye history left behind as a result of system deficiencies associated transactions, equity-based incentives and other issues will be actively seeking solutions.

the Government to consider GDP, sales revenue, profit and tax assessment and other indicators, listed as a whole need to balance the government, companies, the interests of the shareholders, Yibin City of Wuliangye SASAC hopes to maintain absolute control. Yibin Wuliangye Group owned Assets Supervision and Administration of 100 percent holding, management assessment Wuliangye only in the group level assessment, the city in accordance with the profitability of the Group for the year-end incentives Wuliangye management.

and Wuliangye shares, Yibin City, the SASAC, only 67.04 percent of shares held, as Wuliangye huge flow of capital, the current stock price high, if the group of other assets into the liquor, as long as yibin SASAC to a maximum of 2 additional directional ~ 3 million shares can be realized, the SASAC share to around 71 percent, while Wuliangye outflows must be carried out with the flow of profits to shareholders sharing the benefits of local government is affected.

we to judge, if there is no arrangement for the overall listing, the company will not have enough support and push up the performance of shares, the management for equity-based incentives will lose value, so the overall market and equity-based incentives to achieve short-term difficulty larger, listed companies, through related party transactions conveying benefits to the phenomenon of the Group will continue to maintain.

six, profit forecasts and investment ratings

without taking into account the shares acquired company assets, is expected to Wuliangye 2007, 2008 earnings per share were 0.46 yuan and 0.60 yuan, corresponds to 95 times earnings and 73 times at a relatively high level. Wuliangye of related party transactions, equity-based incentives, the overall listing problems still do not have a clear timetable, once the breakthrough will greatly enhance the level of company valuation. Wuliangye if the overall market, not considering diluted share capital is expected 2008 earnings per share of about 0.90 to 0.95 yuan, we consider the current valuation has been part of the overall market reaction is expected, but in the overall market is not fully implemented until there is a certain degree of market space, to maintain the “Recommended” rating. (07-11-6)

Tags: brand, company, sales, wuliangye