World power

“5-year saving 20%, this target seems unlikely to reach.”

Are day and night and hardships in Hebei, Shandong, National Development and Reform Commission to conduct research economy, research group members of the Li Junjie morning of September 13, told reporters.

At this point, to reduce energy consumption as the core of the second half of the macro-control is being vigorously carried out, the National Development and Reform Commission in order to sign the form of duty-shaped unit of GDP energy consumption broken down into provinces, regions, less than a month after the current again to proceed with the saving targets decomposed into various sectors.

iron to make as a mountain, “resolutely defending the” occasion, but it suddenly came and consumption reduction targets “impossible” sound, can not help but surprising.

However, this is not just Li Junjie’s personal views, but the National Development and Reform think-tank the latest assessment.

Recently, the National Energy Research Institute has just been to the State Energy Office submitted a report, preliminary conclusions are: According to the current trends, by 2010, China’s unit of GDP energy consumption to achieve 20% reduction compared with the end of 2005 the possibility of is not strong enough.

Coincidentally, the National Development and Reform Commission Energy Research Institute, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences recently commissioned economic analysis in a report made by team members also came to similar conclusions. The report shows that, according to preliminary calculations, the unit GDP energy consumption by 2010, up to the end of 2005 decreased compared with only around 13% is unlikely to reach 20%.

5 years, saving 20%, a beginning of this year has just been written into the “Eleventh Five-Year Plan” of the rigid quotas, and we really have to “fall” it?

“a maximum of 13%”

Indeed, the situation is not optimistic. The Chinese Academy of Social Sciences economic analysis group’s report which has a very specific quantitative assessment.

The report calculated that: Even if the next five years, economic restructuring, effective, the proportion of tertiary industry rebounded to 2000 levels by 2010, the unit GDP energy consumption can only be done up to the end of 2005 dropped more than 10%. Coupled with energy-saving technological transformation, and other means to improve the management level, the unit GDP energy consumption fell only another 3% -4% of the overall 20% reduction in the distance is even worse 6-7 percentage points.

“the final calculation of the specific data may change, but the overall conclusions will not be a big change.” involved in writing the report of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences economic analysis group, said Shen Lisheng.

being the case, then the original five-year target of saving 20% is by how out of it?

“in accordance with the original calculation of the original, when the country is another indicator to determine the per capita GDP ‘Eleventh Five-Year’ end of the period than the ‘end of 15′ by 20%, need more than 7.4% annual growth rate of GDP. According to this calculation, if the annual GDP the growth rate increased slightly to 7.5%, and control at this level, then the unit GDP energy consumption ‘Eleventh Five-Year’ at the end than the ‘Tenth Five-Year’ at the end of a 20% reduction is feasible. “National Development and Reform Commission experts, one说.

, however, GDP grew 7.5% in this target will soon be greatly exceeded.

statistics show that in the first half of this year GDP growth of more than 10.9%, even up to 11.3% in the second quarter, the highest since the 10-year high.

“If the GDP grew at 8.5% or less, the efforts through various means, unit GDP by 20% of the target can be achieved; more than 9%, if the policies are effective, there are still potential target. but now more than 10% of the . “the experts said.

In such a situation, the national unit of GDP energy consumption in the first half of this year increased by 0.8%. In order to achieve the next five years, saving 20%, then every six months the need saving about 1%.

lead to such a situation is the first 7 months, driving rapid growth of GDP is mainly coal, iron and steel, automotive, ferrous metal smelting high-energy-consuming industries, making energy consumption grew faster than GDP growth. High-energy consuming industries such as the Pretty Horses-like growth so that the industrial structure tends to deteriorate. National Bureau of Statistics data show that the initial check, the first half of this year, the proportion of tertiary industry GDP, dropped to 39.75, lower than in 2002, 43.5%.

the State Development and Reform Commission was originally scheduled lowering the unit GDP energy consumption strategy is built on the premise of optimizing the industrial structure. National Development and Reform Commission Chairman Ma Kai (Ma Kai, News) on July 26 at the national conference on energy efficiency, if the proportion of China’s tertiary industry increased by one percentage point, the second industry, a corresponding reduction in the proportion of industrial added value one percentage point yuan GDP energy consumption can be accordingly be reduced by about 1 percentage point. But now, the proportion of tertiary industry falling instead of rising.

“such a chaotic situation, if it continues, then the whole ‘Eleventh Five-year’ full of energy consumption indicators will fall.” Shen Lisheng said, “unless economic growth down, or find another way out.”

Time is urgent. “Only a little over four years time, a flash would have passed, a new approach to speed up the research.” One analyst said.

40 trades a new exam

“other way” and the new approach is then what is it?

reporter has learned that the National Development and Reform Commission are maneuvering unit of GDP energy consumption reduction of a new strategy, in addition to the 40 new levels, within the industry to upgrade technology, increase the internal restructuring and reducing consumption will be an important direction of development. Comparative study in this area of work has already started.

in the first half, the National Development and Reform Commission with the various provinces, municipalities and autonomous regions, as well as in electricity, and steel industry association’s efforts, some of the industry energy consumption indicator fell to a number of large enterprises. These efforts have been successful. For example the first 5 months, 76 medium-sized comprehensive energy consumption per tonne of steel iron and steel enterprises fell 5.4%, 7.7% decline in comparable energy consumption per ton steel, nonferrous metals, cement industry energy consumption per unit of product decreased by 0.8% year on year and 4.1%.

However, the National Development and Reform Commission Energy Research Institute, the report pointed out that the 40 consumption reduction potential of the technology within the industry there are limitations, for the unit GDP energy consumption reduced by 20% the future is largely meaningless.

The report shows that more than 40 industries only Technically significantly reduce the possibility of not very great. To meet the unit GDP energy consumption reduced by 20% target some difficulty. Large-scale iron and steel enterprises such as energy consumption levels of only 10% from the international level -20%, which with the China Iron and Steel Industry Association of viewpoint.

report said, in addition to iron and steel, and other major industries in the power gap with the international small. Such as the current coal consumption of thermal power supply on average higher than the international advanced level of 22.5%. The five major power groups at the national perspective, with the international advanced level, the distance is even smaller.

“10% -20%” of the gap is not there is still great potential? NDRC Energy Research Institute, Jiang says that not the case. “If you take into account the large number of foreign countries using a lignite, brown coal resources in China is less constrained by such factors, we are also the remaining gap with the international 7% -8%, the steel industry can reduce the 5% -6% of the units may be consumption on the bad. “

This had the same view as academicians Zuoxiu. He has repeatedly said that the Chinese unit GDP energy consumption in developed countries only 10% -20% of the gap, thus reducing the energy consumption required on new paths.

on new ways, the National Development and Reform Commission of Energy of the above-mentioned report commented that the current from the internal industrial structure, energy-intensive industries than in a major, especially high-energy-intensive processing industries in general overcapacity, high-tech, high - value-added, low-power low proportion of the industry. In 2005, the high-tech industrial added value accounted for the proportion of industrial added value is only 10.3%. The energy consumption of 40 industries accounting for 70% of industrial energy consumption, increase the value of the whole industrial added value accounted for only 20%. Thus, by the various sectors within the development of high value-added products and achieve an overall saving potential is enormous.

subsidies, private investment in low-power industry

the general expert view is that the current high energy consumption per unit of GDP is an important reason is that too much private capital flock to high energy-consuming industries. At present, commercial banks deposit and lending spreads are over 10 trillion yuan, this part of the funds more than 10 years ago, has been called “caged tiger”, and now Tiger finally out.

Kejun Jiang pointed out that the tiger cage toward either abroad, or lead to the domestic energy consumption and low investment. Otherwise, we can have good prospects. While the latter a clear need for a number of policies introduced by the Government. Like a number of monopolistic sectors such as telecommunications, open to the private funds is imperative. If private funds can only be crowding together into the high-energy-intensive industries.

“such as the transport sector, can encourage the development of rail transportation, if the Government provides subsidies, private capital can still cast the return is also very high.” Jiang says that. This view

Web site by the State Development and Reform Commission recently issued a research report on the rail support. The study by the National Development and Reform Commission experts in the field, after Japan’s rail transportation industry, a report prepared by that public rail transport in the area of energy saving is superior to private cars.

data show that more than 20 cities across the country have already launched rail transit in the projects, involving about 400 billion yuan of funds. The national authorities had stopped a few years ago around the metro. Now the release of the report mean that the future of the State Development and Reform Commission will adjust the policy on the rail transit project is currently unknown.

“change the development model of saving is indeed feasible, such as encouraging the development of rail transportation, compared to the development of cars produced by much lower energy consumption,” Economic Analysis Group, members of the Academy of Social Sciences, Shen-li-sang, said, “The problem is that the Government faced with a dilemma, for fear the impact such as the automotive industry development. “

为了减少能源消耗20％的十一五发展和改革委员会，另筑防线不能做

“5年节约20％，这个目标似乎不太可能达到。”

是否日夜在河北，山东，国家发展和改革委员会困难进行研究经济，在李俊杰9月13日上午研究小组的成员，对记者说。

在这一点上，以减少能源作为宏观下半年核心控制消费正在大力推行，国家发展和改革委员会，以便签署关税，国内生产总值能源消耗型单位的形式打破分解成各省，自治区，不到一个月之后，目前又着手节约目标分解到各部门。

铁，使如山，“严防死守”的时刻，但突然降耗指标“不可能”的声音，不能不令人惊讶。

然而，这不仅是李俊杰的个人看法，但国家发展和改革智囊团的最新评估。

最近，国家能源研究所刚刚向国家能源办提交了一份报告，初步结论是：根据目前的趋势，到2010年，中国的国内生产总值单位能耗减少20％达到较结束2005年的可能性是不够强大。

巧合的是，国家发展和改革委员会能源研究所，中国社科院最近委托由小组成员提出的经济分析报告也得出类似的结论。报告显示，根据初步计算，到2010年单位GDP能耗，截至2005年底下降，只有约13％，而不可能达到20％。

5年，节省20％，是今年年初刚刚被写入了“十一五”规划的硬指标，我们真的要“落”呢？

“，有13％的最高”

事实上，情况并不乐观。社会科学院经济分析小组的报告，其中有一个非常具体的定量评估院院士。

报告计算的是：即使在未来5年，经济结构调整，有效，第三产业比重回升到2000年到2010年的水平，单位GDP能耗只能在截至2005年年底下降了超过10 ％。再加上节能技术改造等手段，提高管理水平，单位GDP能耗仅下降了3％-4整体20％的距离减少％更差6-7个百分点。

“的具体数据，最终计算可能会改变，但总的结论不会有大的变化。”以书面的中国社会科学院经济分析小组的报告所涉及，说沈哩乘。

情况下，则原来的5年节能20％的目标是如何的呢？

“按照原来的，当国家确定的另一个指标人均国内生产总值’十一五’的比’端的15 20％’期结束后，需要比原来的计算7.4 ％的国内生产总值的年均增长率。根据这一计算，如果每年GDP的增长率微升至7.5％，控制在这个水平，那么单位GDP能耗’十一五’的比’十五结束五年在1月底减少20％’是可行的。“国家发展和改革委员会的专家，一说。

，然而，国内生产总值增长了7.5％这一目标很快将大大超过。

统计数据显示，今年国内生产总值超过10.9％的增长，上半年，甚至达到11.3％，第二季度以来的10年新高的最高水平。

“如果国内生产总值8.5％或更少的增长，通过各种手段努力，单位20％的目标可以实现国内生产总值，超过9％，如果政策得力，依然存在潜在的目标。但现在超过10％。“专家说。

在这种情况下，本地生产总值的能源消耗在今年上半年全国单位上升0.8％。为了实现今后5年，节省20％，那么每6个月需要节省约1％。

导致这种情况是第7个月，驾驶GDP快速增长，主要是煤炭，钢铁，汽车，黑色金属冶炼的高耗能工业，使得能耗增长快于GDP增长。高耗能产业作为脱缰野马这种样生长，使产业结构趋于恶化。国家统计局数据显示，在初步核实，今年上半年，第三产业占GDP的比重下降到39.75，低于2002年43.5％。

国家发展和改革委员会原定降低单位GDP能耗的战略是建立在优化产业结构的前提。国家发展和改革委员会主任马凯（马凯新闻）7月26日在能源效率的全国会议，如果中国第三产业的比例提高一个百分点，第二产业，在比例相应减少工业增值一个百分点，万元GDP能耗可相应会下降约1个百分点减少。但现在，第三产业的比重增加反而减少。

“这种混乱的情况，如果继续下去，那么整个’十一五’的能源消耗指标，充分将下降。”申哩声说，“除非经济增长放缓，或另谋出路。”

时间是紧迫的。 “只有四年多时间，闪存将获得通过，新的办法，加快研究。”一位分析师说。

40个行业的一个新的考试

“其他办法”和新的办法又是什么呢？

记者了解到，国家发展和改革委员会是操纵国内生产总值的能源新战略的消费量减少单位，除40个新的水平，行业内的技术升级，提高内部结构调整和降低消耗，将是重要的发展方向。在这方面的工作比较研究已经开始。
上半年
，国家发展和改革委员会与各省，市，自治区，以及在电力，钢铁等行业协会的努力，在工业能耗指标下降到一些大型企业。这些努力获得了成功。例如前5个月，76个中型钢铁占钢铁企业吨，综合能耗下降了5.4％，7.7％，每吨可比的能源消耗下降钢铁，有色金属，水泥行业单位产品能耗下降0.8％的按年和4.1％。

然而，国家发展和改革委员会能源研究所的报告指出，40个消费减少的技术行业内的潜力有局限性的单位GDP能耗20％，未来的消费量减少，主要是没有意义的。

报告显示，超过40个行业只有在技术上大大降低的可能性不是很大。为了满足单位GDP能耗20％的目标减少了一些困难。大型钢铁等只有10％的能源消耗水平钢铁企业从国际一级-20％，这与中国钢铁工业协会的观点。

报告说，除了钢铁，并在与国际小权力的差距等重点行业。例如火电电源电流煤炭平均比国际先进水平22.5％高消费。在5个国家的角度大国集团与国际先进水平的距离更小。

“10％-20％的差距”是不是还有很大的潜力？国家发改委能源研究所，江泽民说，情况并非如此。 “如果你考虑到国外许多国家使用中国一褐煤，褐煤资源不足等因素制约，我们还与国际7％-8％，钢铁行业剩余的分歧，可以减少5 ％-6％的单位，可消费的坏“。

这有院士何祚庥为同样的看法。他一再表示，中国单位国内生产总值在发达国家的能源消耗只有10％-20％的差距，从而减少能源消耗所需的新途径。
新途径
，国家发展和改革委员会的上述报告能源评论说，在重大，特别是高从工业内部结构，能源密集型产业比当前，能源密集型的一般加工工业生产能力过剩，高科技，高-附加值，低功耗低的产业比重。 2005年，高新技术工业增加值在工业增加值中所占比重仅为10.3％。在工业70％的能源消耗占40个行业的能源消耗，提升整个工业增加值的价值只有20％以上。因此，内，通过高增值发展的各个方面的产品和实现全面节水潜力是巨大的。

补贴，私人投资在低功耗工业

专家们普遍的看法是，目前占国内生产总值单位能耗高是一个重要的原因是过多的私人资本涌向高耗能产业。目前，商业银行存贷款息差超过10万亿元，这部分资金10多年前，被称为“笼老虎”，现在老虎终于出来。

克军江泽民指出，要么走向海外虎笼，或导致国内能源消耗，低投资。否则，我们可以有良好的前景。而后者则是一个由政府出台的政策数量显然需要。像电信等垄断部门的数目，开放的私人资金是必不可少的。如果私人资金只能扎堆进入高能源密集产业。

如运输部门“，可以鼓励铁路运输的发展，如果政府给予补贴，私人资本仍然可以投回报率也很高。”江泽民说。这种观点

由国家发展和改革委员会网站最近发表了关于铁路的支持的研究报告。后日本的铁路运输行业中，在节约能源方面的公共铁路运输编写的一份报告优于研究私家车由国家发展和改革委员会在该领域的专家。

数据显示，超过20个城市已推出的项目约400亿元资金，涉及到轨道交通。国家当局已停止在数年前左右的地铁。现在，该报告公布意味着国家发展和改革委员会今后将调整轨道交通项目的政策目前还不清楚。

“改变储蓄发展模式确实是可行的，如鼓励铁路运输的发展，而由低得多的能源消耗生产的汽车的发展，”经济分析集团，社会科学院，中国科学院沉成员李道生表示，“问题是，政府面临一个两难困境，担心如汽车业发展的冲击。”06.9.14

Tags: consumption, development, energy, gdp