World power

1953, the United States to create a petroleum geologist Hubbert depletion model, claiming that U.S. oil production would be in the last century the late 60s early 70s peak, and then production will continue to fall due to reduction in reserves. He predicted in 1970 turned into a reality. Thus the oil industry this situation is called Hubbert peak (Hubbert’s peak).

a number of experts, based on a modified Hubbard model that the depletion of the world in 2004 to 2015 to reach Hubbert’s peak, most likely to occur in 2008. Since that time, alternative energy still can not replace the role of oil the world will be plunged into an unprecedented energy crisis. This is the far-reaching impact in the international petroleum industry, “theoretical peak” (Oil Peak).

in the past three years, the “peak oil” theory as crude oil prices driven by the theoretical basis, thus causing depletion of world oil panic. High oil prices long run, in July this year, is climbing to a record high of 78.40 U.S. dollars a barrel. “High oil” seems to be the immutable fact. More experts predict that the next few years the price of oil will rise to 100 U.S. dollars a barrel.

“oil age” or “post-oil era”? To some extent, depend on “peak oil” theory is correct. Because of its judgment, will involve a country’s ability to develop long-term energy strategy, decision-making any mistakes, and even the world economy will have its own inestimable impact.

as the world’s top oil-consuming countries, the United States has urged the U.S. Petroleum Council on the “peak oil” theory to conduct research and thereby to develop a long-term energy strategy. The Study Group members include the oil industry, automobile industry and environmental protection industries celebrities, headed by Exxon - Mobil CEO Lee R. Raymond, recently retired.

It is noteworthy that, in the re-examine the “peak oil” theory of the boom, the two veteran practitioners questioned.

one is Exxon - Mobil Corporation’s Australian manager Makenuolan. He cited data from the U.S. Geological Survey reported that the world’s recoverable conventional crude oil more than 3 trillion barrels, has been mined 1 trillion barrels left over 2 trillion barrels; pairs of heavy oil and shale oil exploitation can increase production of crude oil to 40000 billion barrels; technological advances have increased by 10% extraction rate, but also bring about 8000 billion barrels of crude oil. Nolan concluded that: “the end of oil is also very far away. From the perspective of scientific theory, one need not worry about the adequacy of energy resources.”

The other one is the biggest oil company Saudi Aramco CEO of ab Dura Juma. Juma said at a meeting this month in the OPEC, the world’s recoverable oil reserves of about 5.7 billion barrels, is currently mined only 1 trillion barrels, but 18% of total reserves, at current extraction speed, the whole world there are 100 years of adequate crude oil reserves.

to refute some of the oil industry “peak” theory, it seems odd deceitful, in fact, Ye Hao understood. At present oil prices are still high, oil companies reaped great profits; but as the other side of the coin, once to determine the world’s oil does faced with depletion of countries is bound to speed up alternative energy research. In the long run, the oil industry will face the risk of marginalization. As an important signal, and oil magnate with ties to the Bush administration this year, “said the United States can not be too dependent on oil,” and began to vote heavily in the development of ethanol and other alternative energy sources.

The academic point of view.

“peak” theory of an active advocate and author of “post-petroleum era,” Kennisidi Deffeyes insist that global oil production reached a peak in late 2005. Influence in the oil industry, an advisory body, chairman of PFC Energy罗宾森韦斯特that the peak may indeed yet to come, but it will not be too far away. In accordance with data from Chevron, the world’s 48 oil-producing countries, 33 production on the decline.

academic point of view is very clear that countries should take precautions to speed up research on alternative energy sources, or if there is an energy crisis, economies will face catastrophic consequences. However, this requires that States must invest heavily, and many industries will face a painful transition. If the oil is not really exhausted and can maintain a low-cost, the costs of transition will be a heavy burden on economic development.

around the “peak oil” theory debate will continue. Perhaps in another decade, side right or wrong will be at a glance, the question is now who Ganna long-term development of the national economy as a bet. Many countries, perhaps only in the drift and sway in the decision. How to grasp the right direction, will always be a test of the wisdom of policy makers and vision.

“石油峰值”理论驱动的原油价格上升到主宰世界能源战略

1953年，美国建立石油地质学家哈伯特枯竭模型，宣称美国石油产量将在上个世纪的60年代末70年代初的高峰，然后产量将持续下降，由于储量减少。他预计，在1970年变成了现实。因此，石油工业的这种情况被称为哈伯特峰值（哈伯特顶峰）。

一些专家的基础上，修改Hubbard模型认为，在2004年世界消耗到2015年将达到哈伯特顶峰，最有可能在2008年发生。自那时以来，可再生能源还不能取代石油，世界将变成一个陷入空前的能源危机的作用。这是在国际石油工业产生深远的影响，“理论峰值”（石油峰值）。

在过去3年

的“石油峰值”理论作为原油的理论基础导向的价格，从而导致全球石油恐慌枯竭。高油价长期来看，在今年7月，是攀升到创纪录的七十八点四○美元每桶高。 “高油价”，似乎是不可改变的事实。更多的专家预测，未来几年石油价格将上升到100美元1桶。

“石油时代”或“后石油时代”？在某种程度上，取决于“石油峰值”理论是正确的。由于其判决，将涉及一个国家的能力，制定长期能源战略，决策的失误，乃至世界经济将有自己的难以估量的影响。

作为世界头号石油消费国，美国已敦促美国国家石油委员会对“石油峰值”理论进行研究，从而制定长期能源战略。研究小组成员包括石油业，汽车制造业和环保产业的名人，由埃克森美孚为首-美孚公司首席执行官李雷蒙德最近退休。

值得注意的是，在重新审视“石油峰值”理论的繁荣，这两个资深业内质疑。

一个是埃克森-美孚公司的澳大利亚经理Makenuolan。他引用美国地质调查报告的数据，世界常规可采原油超过3万亿桶，已开采超过2万亿桶剩余1万亿桶，对重油和页岩油开采对能够增加原油产量40000亿桶，科技进步日新月异，10％提取率上升，还会带来约8000亿美元的原油。诺兰的结论是：“石油端也很遥远。从科学理论的角度来看，人们不必担心能源资源充足。”

另一个是最大的石油公司沙特阿美公司总裁朱马的AB杜拉。朱马说，在会议上的欧佩克，世界上约5.7亿桶石油可采储量一个月，目前仅开采1万亿桶，但18％的总储量按目前的开采速度，全世界有100多年充足的原油储量。

反驳石油行业的一些“峰值”理论，这似乎让人难以理解欺骗，事实上，葉好理解。目前，石油价格仍然偏高，石油公司利润大幅回升，但作为硬币的另一面，一旦确定世界石油确实有枯竭的国家所面临的必将加快替代能源的研究。从长远来看，石油工业将面临边缘化的危险。作为一个重要的信号，和石油与布什政府的关系巨头今年，说：“美国不能过于依赖石油”，并开始投票，乙醇和其他替代能源的发展严重。

的学术观点。

“高峰期”的积极倡导者和“后石油时代的作者论”，Kennisidi菲耶斯坚持认为，全球石油产量达到了2005年末达到高峰。影响石油工业，一个咨询机构PFC能源罗宾森韦斯特主席的峰值可能确实尚未到来，但不会太遥远。在与雪佛龙，世界上48个石油生产国，33个在减少生产数据的规定。

学术观点是很清楚的，各国应当采取预防措施，加快替代能源，或有能源危机的研究，经济将面临灾难性的后果。但是，这要求各国必须投入巨资，许多产业将面临一个痛苦的过渡。如果石油并非真正枯竭并能维持低价，转型的成本将是一个经济发展的沉重负担。

围绕“石油峰值”理论争论将继续下去。也许再过十年，侧对或错将一目了然，问题是现在谁甘纳长期国家经济的长远发展作为赌注。许多国家，也许只在漂移和决策影响力。如何把握正确的方向，将永远是决策者的智慧和远见的考验。06.9.26

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