World power

by the cooling U.S. economy may cut demand for energy as well as international geopolitical tensions eased to some extent other factors, the New York Mercantile Exchange, November crude futures contract briefly fell below 60 dollars per barrel yesterday, an integer mark. Since the July crude oil prices continued to fall since mid-on global financial markets, energy companies and have significant impact on all walks of life at the same time, it also makes the domestic refined oil prices have the opportunity to align with international prices.

two months, oil prices fell 23%

at 19:00 Beijing time yesterday, the New York Mercantile Exchange, light sweet crude for delivery in November futures price 59.73 U.S. dollars a barrel, compared with the previous session down 0.71 U.S. dollars, the highest for half a year to the lowest position. London’s International Petroleum Exchange, November Brent crude oil futures prices reported 59.41 U.S. dollars, fell 0.82 U.S. dollars compared with the previous session.

to 59.73 U.S. dollars yesterday, the latest prices, the New York Mercantile Exchange crude oil futures price two months ago, compared to the historical record, has fallen more than 23%. By the volatile situation in the Middle East, the impact of international crude oil prices have been rising this year, and on July 14 hit a record 78.40 U.S. dollars a barrel.

“Oil prices fell mainly affected by two factors,” said Dong Tao, Credit Suisse managing director of First International Energy demand is gradually weakened, mainly because as the world’s oil powers like the United States and China’s economy a gradual cooling. The second reason is because some time ago fired too high oil prices, this decline is a normal adjustment. Be exposed in the recent huge loss of hedge funds after the news of six billion U.S. dollars, investors are also somewhat “thus collapse and disappear.”

China State Information Center’s economic forecasting department, said Niu Li, Sino-US two consumer of the country’s economic slowdown is the main factor leading to decline in oil prices.

the International Energy Agency last week this year and next year to reduce global oil demand forecasts, this year’s global daily oil demand forecast cut to 84.7 million barrels a day, 2007 Nianxia transferred to 86.2 million barrels.

but due to the recent sharp rise in oil prices supported by geo-political issues have also been some recent easing. Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, a hard-line attitude changed early this month, 21, publicly expressed their willingness to join in the discussion with the Western countries to solve its nuclear problem, but also to Iran for its nuclear program is for peaceful purposes.

the same time, U.S. commercial inventories of crude oil and refined oil inventories are adequate, is to make the international market, the main reason for drop in oil prices. In addition, the United States last Friday was also agreed that BP plans to restart the nation’s largest oil field, which also eased the market concerns about the international crude oil supplies.

domestic and international oil prices after a lapse of two years and then converge

in the following two years, the domestic refined oil prices in international oil prices yesterday and finally realize the dynamic docking.

yesterday with New York crude oil futures contract briefly fell below 60 U.S. dollars for a long time hanging upside down prices at home and abroad, and finally got the opportunity to achieve integration. At the same time, such prices could also make a number of domestic refineries be basically out of a loss.

Beginning in 1998, the domestic refined oil prices and international markets linked to the initiative to form gasoline, diesel fuel prices and the international oil market, the three places (Singapore, New York and Rotterdam spot market) price-linked mechanism. Since 2004, international crude oil prices had been pushing the domestic price of oil appears inverted.

Today, as international oil prices fall below 60 U.S. dollars, the domestic price of oil finally have the opportunity to achieve integration with the international. Industry sources, the current domestic refined oil prices is the reference to 60 U.S. dollars / barrel crude oil price of around standard-setting.

As for refineries, the crude oil prices continued to fall no doubt a lot of lower costs, many refineries are also able to turn around. As the refinery is not supporting the construction, the cost is relatively low, a result, many private enterprises compared with large enterprises such as Sinopec earlier realized losses.

a private refineries in Shandong boss told reporters that as early as crude oil prices fell below 63 U.S. dollars, the company’s refining business has been deficits. Since then, the oil refinery has been running at full capacity. The large-scale enterprises such as Sinopec’s largest refinery in 63 dollars can only be achieved to ensure the gasoline business losses, but there are still some inversion of diesel. But when the test a low oil prices to 60 dollars, the upside has been completely disappear.

At present, there are about 90% of the domestic refined oil are in the petrochemical and oil in large state-owned company, and the remaining 10% of refinery production by the private sector.

according to past experience, the annual oil consumption in 9,10,11 months are the peak season. The current year, the experts said the tight supply situation is expected to not occur again.

decline in international oil prices still room for

the future trend of international oil prices, most experts believe that the various factors leading to rising oil prices has been gradually eased, and new oil production capacity is expanding, so oil prices will continue to decline.

“the worst period of supply shortage of crude oil is over, the new production capacity is expanding, so the short term, the adjustment of international oil prices to continue for some time,” Dong Tao, Credit Suisse managing director, said yesterday. However, he also pointed out that oil prices are still optimistic about the center line. (YUAN Xiao-Li Yan Wang Lina to compete)

5th of this month, U.S. oil giant Chevron announced the discovery in the Gulf of Mexico up to 150 billion barrels of reserves, a large oil field, which claim to enhance the U.S. crude oil reserves more than 50% The news is also a time for the international market, oil prices tumbled.

Morgan Stanley chief economist Stephen Roach said that the rich oil reserves and increasing oil supply means, and because the United States and China’s real estate market have led to a drop in demand of raw materials, so predicting oil prices is likely in the summer has reached the highest point and includes a variety of international crude oil, including commodity prices will fall sharply. Morgan Stanley had expected international oil prices at the end of next year will be reduced to 60 U.S. dollars a barrel, to the end of 2008 dropped to 50 dollars a barrel.

Deutsche Bank also forecasts that oil inventories had reached the highest level in five years, therefore, increasing spare capacity “to make oil prices dropped to around 50 dollars a barrel.” OPEC’s former acting secretary general Adnan Syahabudin said recently that international oil prices may be in the middle of next year around 40 dollars a barrel.

However, OPEC’s second largest oil producer Iran’s Oil Minister Vaziri, and Venezuela’s oil minister Rafael Ramirez seems that oil prices fall below 60 U.S. dollars is what they can not tolerate. Some analysts pointed out that if international oil prices fell below 55 dollars a barrel, OPEC will take action to cut.

said last week that OPEC’s 11 members agreed to keep oil output unchanged, said he will continue to meet global oil demand, even though they fall in oil prices with caution. But they also said that in recent years, the growth rate of world oil production has exceeded demand growth in the face of slump in demand, some OPEC members to cut production in recent months.

drop in oil prices is not only the airlines happy

New York yesterday, crude oil futures prices fell below 60 U.S. dollars, with the July 14 record high of 78.40 U.S. dollars per barrel price compared to a full down by 23%, and is also Since 2003, the longest one down.

crude oil price changes is through the chain of petrochemical industry, the cost of changes may affect the downstream industry chain, if the domestic oil market, reflecting the non-lag, crude oil prices continued to decline in good will fully reflect, not only will reduce the downstream plastics, chemical fiber, packaging, rubber production costs and other related industries, and that the decline in oil prices will also transport, civil aviation, automotive consumption a positive impact on the operation of industry.

the biggest beneficiary of falling oil prices course ought to airlines. Affected by the long-term impact of high oil prices, the aviation industry’s loss-making situation difficult to change. In the first 8 months, aviation kerosene prices had a substantial adjustment in the third consecutive time in 2006, the year the average price of domestic aviation kerosene factory than last year, the average price rise by at least 20%. In the frequency adjustment of fuel prices, the airline’s gross margins were severely affected the cost of aviation fuel in the main business in the proportion of about 30% from the previous increase to more than 40%, gross margins continue to decline. Thus, the drop in crude oil prices will significantly reduce its operating costs, Changjiang Securities estimates researcher Fu Yunfeng, aviation kerosene, accounting for about 40% of airline costs, fuel oil accounted for about 30% of water companies, aviation kerosene, the price of every drop 10% thickened Airlines net profit will be about 6%, fuel oil dropped 10% for each will be thickened water company’s net profit of about 2%.

refining industry will also be a result of falling oil prices sharply lower costs. At present, because oil prices are too high, the petrochemical industry there had been widespread loss of status, while the drop in oil prices will directly reduce the procurement cost of crude oil refineries, according to Everbright Securities researcher Qiu Xiao-feng is estimated that if international oil prices remain unchanged, the domestic refined oil prices are no longer no longer increase downward, according to Sinopec’s net purchases of crude oil annually from the outside nearly 100 million tons calculated an average price of crude oil fell for every one U.S. dollars / ton, will reduce the purchasing cost of crude oil throughout the year, Sinopec 5.8 billion, net of income taxes, will be thickness of about 0.45 yuan per share.

rubber, chemical fiber, plastics and other industries, and the automobile industry will also be the beneficiaries. Rubber, plastics, chemical fiber products, raw materials, mainly from crude oil refining, so drop in crude oil prices will reduce the production cost of synthetic rubber and natural rubber prices pulling down, it will greatly reduce the synthesis of plastics, synthetic fiber production costs, accounting for plastic a higher proportion of the cost of electronics manufacturing companies a greater impact. In addition, oil prices will reduce the people under the ongoing costs of keeping a car to increase the car will, car sales are also expected to accelerate growth.

纽约原油期货价格下跌了国内外衔接60美元后，再过两年，然后

由美国经济降温可能削减能源需求以及国际地缘政治紧张局势有所缓解等因素，纽约商品交易所11月份原油期货合约一度跌至每桶低于60美元，昨日，一个整数大关。自7月原油价格继续下跌中旬以来对全球金融市场，能源公司，并已在社会各界产生重大影响的同时，也使得国内成品油价格有机会与国际价格接轨。

两个月，石油价格下降了23％

在北京时间昨天19:00，纽约商品交易所，11月期货价格，原油价格五十九点七三美元每桶比下降0.71美元上届会议，在半年的最高到最低的位置。伦敦国际石油交易所11月份北海布伦特原油期货价格报59.41美元，下滑0.82美元，比与上一届会议。

的五十九点七三美元昨天，最新价格，纽约商品交易所原油期货价格两个月前相比，历史记录，已经下降超过23％。通过在动荡不定的中东局势，国际原油价格一直上涨的影响，今年的7月14日达到创纪录的七十八点四零美元桶。

“油价下跌主要受两个因素影响，”陶冬表示，瑞士信贷第一常务董事国际能源的需求正在逐步减弱，这主要是因为像美国和中国的经济逐渐降温，世界石油大国。第二个原因是因为前一段时间发射过高的油价，这一下降是正常的调整。在最近的对冲基金遭受巨大损失后，六十〇万点〇万美元消息，投资者也有点“树倒猢狲散。”

中国国家信息中心经济预测部说，牛犁中美两个国家的经济放缓消费的主要因素是导致油价下跌。

国际能源机构上周今年和明年，以减少全球石油需求预测，今年全球日均石油需求的预测，减少到8470.0万桶，2007年Nianxia转移至86.2万桶。

但由于近期地缘支持石油价格急剧上升的政治问题也被最近的一些缓和。伊朗总统内贾德强硬的态度有所改变本月初，21日，公开表示愿意参加在与西方国家讨论解决核问题，但其核计划也向伊朗用于和平目的。

与此同时，原油和成品油库存美国的商业库存充足，是使国际市场，在石油价格下跌的主要原因。此外，美国上周五还同意英国石油公司计划重启美国最大的油田，这也缓解了国际原油市场的供应忧虑。

后，再过两年国内和国际油价接轨
，然后在随后两年
，国内国际油价昨日成品油价格，最终实现了动态对接。

与纽约原油期货合约昨日一度跌至60美元以下的长幅的下跌在国内外价格上涨的时间，终于有机会实现一体化。同时，这样的价格也使国内一些炼油厂基本上走出了损失。

在1998年开始，国内成品油价格与国际市场联系在一起的倡议，形成汽油，柴油价格和国际石油市场，三地（新加坡，纽约和鹿特丹现货市场）价格挂钩的机制。自2004年以来，国际原油价格一直在推动国内的石油价格出现倒挂。

今天，当国际油价低于60美元，国内石油价格终于有机会实现与国际一体化下降。业内人士透露，目前国内成品油价格是60美元的参考/桶左右的原油价格标准石油价格制定。

至于炼油厂，原油价格继续下跌，无疑是降低成本很多，很多炼油厂还可以扭转。由于炼油厂是不支持的建设，成本相对较低，因此，许多民营企业与大企业相比，如中石化前实现的损失。

山东私人炼油厂老板告诉记者，早在原油价格低于63美元，跌至该公司的炼油业务一直亏损。自那时以来，该炼油厂已在满负荷运行。大如中石化最大炼油厂在63美元规模的企业才能实现，以确保汽油的商业损失，但还存在一些柴油反演。但是，当测试低油价至60美元，上涨已完全消失。

目前，大约有90％，国内成品油中石化和中石油是国有大型国有企业，其余10％的炼油厂生产的私营部门。

根据以往的经验，在9,10,11个月，每年的石油消费量的高峰期。今年，专家表示，供应紧张的情况，预计不会再出现。

下降，国际油价仍有空间为

国际石油价格的未来趋势，多数专家认为，种种因素导致油价上涨已逐步缓解，新的石油生产能力正在扩大，因此油价将继续下降。

“的原油供应短缺的最坏时期已经过去，新的生产能力正在扩大，因此，短期来看，国际石油价格调整持续一段时间，”董逃，瑞士信贷董事总经理昨天表示， 。但他同时指出，油价仍对中线乐观。 （袁颜晓莉汪丽娜竞争）

本月5日，美国石油巨头雪佛龙公司宣布在墨西哥湾的150亿桶的储备，大油田，据称可提高发现美国原油储量50％以上，这个消息也是国际市场的时间，油价下跌。

摩根士丹利首席经济学家罗奇表示，丰富的石油储量，增加石油供应的手段，因为美国和中国的房地产市场，导致了对原材料需求的下降，因此预测油价是在夏天很可能已达到最高点，并包括对国际原油品种，包括商品价格将大幅下降。摩根士丹利曾预计在明年年底，国际石油价格将降低到60美元一桶，到2008年底下降到每桶50美元。

德意志银行也预计，石油库存已经达到五年来最高水平，因此，提高闲置产能“，使石油价格下降到每桶50美元。”欧佩克前代理秘书长阿德南谢哈卜丁日前表示，国际油价可能在明年年中左右每桶40美元以上。

不过，欧佩克第二大产油国伊朗石油部长哈玛，委内瑞拉石油部长拉米雷斯看来，油价跌破60美元下跌是他们所不能容忍的。一些分析家指出，如果国际油价跌破每桶55美元下跌，欧佩克将采取行动削减。

上周表示，欧佩克11个成员同意保持石油产量不变，表示他将继续满足全球石油需求，即使他们在谨慎油价下跌。但他们也说，近几年，世界石油产量的增长速度超过了需求在增长，需求的不景气，一些欧佩克成员国最近几个月削减产量。

油价回落不仅是快乐

航空公司昨天纽约原油期货价格跌破60美元，与7月14日创纪录的每桶78.40美元的高价格相比，全面下降了23％，并是自2003年以来，最长的一人。

原油价格的变化，通过石化产业链，成本的变化可能会影响到下游产业链，如果国内石油市场，这反映了非滞后，原油价格持续下跌，充分反映良好，不只有将降低下游塑料，化纤，包装，橡胶生产成本及其他相关行业，而石油价格下跌也将运输，民用航空，汽车消费对工业的运作产生积极的影响。

在油价不断下跌过程中的最大受益者应该航空公司。受高油价的长期影响的影响，航空业的亏损局面难以改变。在第8个月，航空煤油价格在2006年第三次连续大幅调整，今年国内航空煤油比去年工厂的平均价格，至少20％的平均价格上涨。在燃油价格，航空公司的毛利率受到严重影响的主要业务是航空燃料费用比前增加约30％的比例超过40％的频率调整，毛利率继续下降。因此，在原油价格下跌将大大降低运营成本，长江证券研究员傅云峰估计，航空煤油，约40％，占航空公司成本，燃油约30自来水公司，航空煤油价格％，占每下降10％，增厚航空公司净利润约6％，燃料油每下降10％的水将增厚公司的净盈利约2％。

炼油业也将是石油价格的下跌而大幅降低成本。目前，由于油价过高，石化行业出现了普遍亏损的状况，而油价下跌将直接减少炼油厂的原油采购成本，据光大证券研究员邱晓峰估计，如果国际油价维持不变，国内成品油价格不再下降不再增加，根据中石化的净购买的原油从外面近1亿计算的原油平均价格为每万吨1美元下跌/吨，将减少全年的原油采购成本，中石化58亿美元，扣除所得税，将是每股约0.45元的厚度。

橡胶，化纤，塑料等行业，以及汽车行业也将是受益者。橡胶，塑料，化纤产品，原材料主要来自原油精炼，所以在原油价格下跌将降低合成橡胶和天然橡胶生产成本的价格拉下来，将大大降低合成塑料，合成纤维生产成本，塑料的成本较高的电子制造企业比重较大的影响。此外，石油价格将降低下养车，以增加赛车会，汽车销售也将加速增长的经常性费用的人。06.9.26

Tags: crude, dollars, oil, prices