INDUSTRY

2008年4月，在杭州经济技术开发区，一个不起眼的小建筑，龙艳能源科技（杭州）有限公司正式成立。在2400万美元，该公司总投资做的非常先进的东西：碲化镉薄膜电池和组件可以。尽管他们的产品是在研究和开发实验室阶段，但要正式在2009年投入运行，但他们在成立的第一天，该公司的成立得到了国内风险投资的钱球员协会，协会投资伙伴为“成功”很高兴投资。

和彦龙低调从正泰集团公司在太阳能注意不断媒体投资不同。正泰生产的薄膜太阳能电池在2007年年底推出，到目前的100兆瓦的能力。正泰太阳能预计杨立友总经理在2011年，将达到400兆瓦的生产能力。 “市场需求，供给，在同一条生产线产品已经采取了完全是卖方的市场了！”异常杨立友高兴。

硅薄膜电池供电危机导致投资的热点

其实，早在年龄上个世纪70非晶硅薄膜的开发，但只是作为一半的多晶硅转换效率的结果，有不具有普遍性。近年来越来越倾向于在光伏产业，引发了硅材料的供应危机。硅原材料价格，使得薄膜电池再次浮出水面。 2007年，全球薄膜太阳能电池产量达到2006 181MW 40万千瓦，大幅提高至8.2％，增长1.2倍，2006年市场份额12％。

因此，太阳能热水，热下列后多晶硅薄膜电池组件已成为国内光伏新的投资热点地区。 2008年6月的德国光伏展，2008年台湾的年产量只有30mW的绿色能源，将签署命令，为200兆瓦，是6倍2008年生产能力;宇通轻量能源生产尚未，也为万千下达的命令。天威更改安全计划投资为320000.0万非晶硅薄膜太阳能电池项目;赛维在江西南昌，建设世界上技术最先进，规模最大的薄膜太阳能电池项目宣布，在2008年7月，强生公司非有25MW光伏晶体硅薄膜太阳能电池生产线正式投产，江西的股份宣布成立合资企业，建立一个对薄膜年生产能力50MW的目标，非晶硅太阳能电池生产线。在此之前，尚德，孚日在新的扩展，如公司的股票品种的股份已经宣布进军薄膜电池领域项。

标杆企业First Solar的

许多类型的薄膜太阳能电池，硅薄膜主要含有类（无定形硅的a - Si，微晶硅晶体硅，堆栈型非晶硅/晶体硅等）在化合物半导体类（铜铟镓硒独联体/铜铟镓硒，碲化镉碲化镉），和新概念的染料敏化类型。

虽然薄膜太阳能电池的市场占有率将只有不到，其转换效率，生产产量，设备费用和其他问题也需要克服，但是，储蓄薄膜太阳能电池材料可以便宜玻璃，塑料或不锈钢基板制造，可大面积制造，可灵活，易于使用的建筑施工中的应用灵活性优势，外墙进展，已被广泛各种太阳能光伏产业，研究机构是好的，将会议的一代太阳能光伏明星产品。

在非晶硅薄膜太阳能电池的最大的技术，而碲化镉中增长最快的太阳能电池生产。 2006年，世界排名前15位最大的太阳能电池制造商中，只有第一太阳能排名前13位是一种碲化镉薄膜太阳能电池生产企业。该公司总部设在美国产品名称，目前薄膜在电池产品供不应求，订单预计到2010年后，其股票价格在一年半了近10倍，成为美国市场上，估值的光伏股享有最高水平。

First Solar的50％以上的毛利率，但如此高的毛利率，由于掌握了碲化镉薄膜的核心技术的公司，为许多自我设备设计，技术也自行开发的，所以成本要低得多。从分项成本也可以验证的是，虽然第一太阳能设备折旧5年时间，美国比其他制造商应用材料公司阿马特7年的，但单位仍比非晶硅生产成本较高的折旧行阿马特超过20％以上的复合应用材料低40％的生产线低。

“首先是太阳能薄膜的全球制造商树立了良好的基准，但它是惊人的指标一般不容易能率和企业。”新能源产业瑾证券分析师张帅说。巨大的隐性

空间共存

专家认为，与结晶硅太阳能电池相比，薄膜电池的更大潜力降低成本，主要是由于薄膜电池和技术进步。据“光子”预测，多晶硅组件从3.92美元2007年底平均价格/糯降至2012年的2.08美元/瓦特，薄膜电池从目前2.65美元平均价格/糯下跌至1.11美元/糯与结晶硅相比，具有明显的优点。

作为在使用成本下降的结果，业界估计，薄膜太阳能电池在2010年将进入以更好地大规模生产，市场占有率的发展将提高到约12％-20％，输出是达超过1GW。

“薄膜太阳能能力估计，未来可能会达到整个太阳能产业，20％，现在只有7.6个百分点，表明这一领域的人。”浙江华睿投资经理投资管理有限公司章必嗯简介：薄膜太阳能是做薄，有必要提高性能指标，有很多物理方法，如离子束纳米硅沉积法，薄膜这个过程在国外，只有做业务在目前国内尚不存在。如果这些方法可以提高国内企业在上述将十分乐观。

的张斌先生表示，国内企业在技术上差距还很大。随着结晶硅太阳能电池，如在真空镀膜技术的广泛使用不同的薄膜电池制造，半导体产业可能会因此更直接影响产品产量的技术水平，间接影响企业的盈利能力，这是主要的LCD厂，芯片制造商的盈利能力巨大差异可以略知道;其次，薄膜电池行业是技术创新和产业的发展，有些进程尚未成熟的路线，从不断改进工艺技术要求的角度来看，薄膜电池比晶体硅电池制造商需要一个强大的研发和技术队伍。

此外，由于薄膜电池技术发展的结果较短，没有形成一个共同的技术和通用设备，目前大尺寸薄膜电池设备在美国主要的交钥匙工程提供的应用材料（AMAT），瑞士欧瑞康，以及日本的爱发科3。设备折旧是薄膜电池，主要的成本之一，根据目前的市场报价与能力，薄膜电池生产线的价格是6-10倍，结晶硅，而在主要原材料供应，目前的国际巨头垄断，高保护价敞开。薄膜电池

主要原料，包括玻璃（导电玻璃及其他玻璃），长荣，目标，以及气体。薄膜电池需要更高的导电玻璃，目前疲软的国内制造商，主要来自日本和美国市场的鸿沟就业促进法核供应国集团。随着国内电影制作的爆发，可能提供的紧张格局。目标目前国内供应仍然主要由国际大公司，贺利氏，德国是世界上最大的供应商在超过60％的国内市场份额。此外，没有硅烷国内生产，而国际主要制造有限扩大，与LCD及其它高硅烷加上局部供需仍然紧张，价格居高不下，不排除可能继续上升。

当然，从另一个角度来看，如果国内企业通过这些发展瓶颈的突破，自然有很强的竞争力。单晶硅在目前的高油价太阳能，薄膜太阳能电池已进入了一个良好的发展机遇，为日益强大的市场需求。但是，如果未来晶体硅太阳能能源价格大幅下跌，薄膜在太阳能电池市场需求的产品可能会受到影响。专家提醒投资者必须考虑市场的风险说明。

Thin-film batteries: another “Sunshine Boulevard”

April 2008, in Hangzhou Economic and Technological Development Zone, an inconspicuous little building, Long Yan Energy Technology (Hangzhou) Co., Ltd. was formally established. The total investment of 24 million U.S. dollars of the company to do very advanced things: cadmium telluride thin-film batteries and components can be. Although their products are still in the laboratory stage of research and development, to be formally put into operation in 2009, but they are in the company set up on the first day to get the domestic venture capital investment money players association, and association investment partner for the “success” is very pleased to invest.

and Yan-long low-key is different from Chint Group Corporation for investment in solar constant media attention. Zhengtai production of thin-film solar cells available by the end of 2007, to the present capacity of 100 megawatts. Zhengtai solar energy is expected to杨立友Managing Director in 2011, will reach 400 megawatts of production capacity. “The market demand, supply, product on one production line has been taken away completely in a seller’s market!” Abnormal杨立友pleased.

silicon thin-film battery supply crisis led to investment hot

In fact, as early as age 70 in the last century, amorphous silicon thin film was developed, but only as a result of the conversion efficiency of polycrystalline silicon half, has not been universal. In recent years increasingly favor the photovoltaic industry, triggered a crisis in the supply of silicon material. Silicon raw material prices, making thin-film battery once again surfaced. In 2007, the global thin-film solar cell production reached 400MW, over 181MW of 2006 substantially increased by 120 percent market share in 2006 from 8.2% to 12%.

Accordingly, the following components of solar energy hot, hot after the polysilicon thin film battery has become the area of domestic PV new investment hot spot. In June 2008 the German Photovoltaic Exhibition, the 2008 annual output of Taiwan can only 30mW green energy, to be signed orders amounted to 200MW, is 6 times the annual production capacity of 2008; YUTONG not yet in volume production of light energy, has also made orders for 60MW. Tianwei change security plans to invest 3.2 billion for the amorphous silicon thin film solar cell projects; Zevi announced in Nanchang, Jiangxi building the world’s most technologically advanced and largest thin film solar cell projects; in July 2008, Johnson & Johnson non-25MW photovoltaic crystalline silicon thin film solar cell production line officially put into operation; Jiangxi to the shares announced the formation of joint ventures, building a target of 50MW of annual production capacity of thin film amorphous silicon photovoltaic cell production lines. Prior to this, Suntech, Vosges stake in the new extension to, shares of companies such as Variety have announced its entry into the field of thin-film batteries.

Benchmarking Enterprise First Solar

many types of thin film solar cells, silicon thin film containing mainly type (amorphous silicon a-Si, microcrystalline silicon c-Si, stack-type a-Si / c -Si, etc.) and the compound semiconductor-type (copper indium gallium selenide CIS / CIGS, cadmium telluride CdTe), and the new concept of dye-sensitized type.

Although thin-film solar cells into the market share less than one, and its conversion efficiency, production yields, equipment costs and other issues also to be overcome, however, a savings of thin film solar cell materials can be inexpensive glass, plastic or stainless steel substrate manufacturing, can be a large area manufacturing, can be made of flexible, easy to work with the external walls of building construction application flexibility advantages, has been widely various solar photovoltaic industry, research institutions are good, will be meeting generation of solar photovoltaic-Star Products.

amorphous silicon thin film technology in solar cells for the largest, while CdTe solar cell production in the fastest growing. In 2006, the world’s top 15 largest solar cell manufacturers, only the top 13 of the First Solar is a production of cadmium telluride thin film solar cell business. The company is headquartered in the United States AZ, the current thin-film battery products in short supply, orders scheduled to after 2010; its stock price in a year and a half up near 10-fold, to become the United States market, the valuation of the enjoyment of the highest level of PV Unit .

First Solar gross margin above 50%, but such a high gross profit margins due to the company mastered the CdTe film’s core technology, the equipment for the many self-designed, technology is also self-developed, so the cost is much lower. From the cost breakdown also can verify that, although First Solar equipment depreciation time for 5 years, the United States than the other manufacturers Applied Materials, Inc. AMAT 7 years shorter, but the unit still higher than the depreciation cost of the amorphous silicon production line AMAT more than 20% lower than the production line of laminated AMAT low 40%.

“First Solar is a global manufacturer of thin film has set a good benchmark, but it is stunning indicators are generally not easily be able to rate and enterprises of.” Guojin securities of new energy industry analysts said Zhang Shuai . enormous hidden

space coexist

Experts believe that compared with the crystalline silicon cells, thin film cells is much greater potential for cost reduction, mainly thanks to thin-film batteries and technological progress. According to “Photon” prediction, the average price of polysilicon components from the end of 2007 of 3.92 U.S. dollars / W in 2012 dropped to 2.08 U.S. dollars / W, the average price of thin-film battery from the current 2.65 U.S. dollars / W down to 1.11 U.S. dollars / W, with the obvious advantages compared to crystalline silicon.

as a result of the decline in the use of cost, the industry estimates that thin-film solar cells in 2010 will be entered to better development of mass production, market share will be raised to about 12% -20%, output can be Tatsu over 1GW.

“thin-film solar capacity is estimated that the future may reach the entire solar energy industry, 20%, now only 7.6 percent, showing that this space were.”华睿Zhejiang Investment Manager Investment Management Co., Ltd. Zhang Bin Introduction: thin-film solar is to do a thin, it is necessary to improve performance indicators, there are many physical methods, such as ion beam deposition method of nanocrystalline silicon thin films of this process, in foreign countries only to do a business in the domestic at present does not exist yet. If domestic enterprises in these methods can improve the above will be very promising.

as Zhang Bin said, domestic enterprises are technically still a big gap. With crystalline silicon cells have very different film battery manufacturing, such as the extensive use of vacuum coating technology, the semiconductor industry more may therefore directly affect the level of technical Product yields, indirectly affecting the profitability of enterprises, This is the major LCD Factory, IC manufacturers a huge difference in profitability can be slightly seen; Secondly, the thin-film battery industry is a technology innovation and development of the industry, and some processes are not yet ripe route, the required process technology from the perspective of continuous improvement, thin-film batteries manufacturers than the crystalline silicon cell manufacturers need a strong R & D and technical team.

In addition, as a result of thin-film cell technology development is shorter, does not form a common technology and common equipment, currently provided by large-size thin-film battery devices turnkey projects in the main of the United States are Applied Materials (AMAT), Switzerland Oerlikon, as well as Japan’s ULVAC 3. Equipment depreciation are thin-film battery, one of the major cost, according to the current market quotation, with the capacity of thin-film battery production line prices are 6-10 times that of crystalline silicon, while in the main raw material supply, the current international giants are monopolies, high prices and without protection. thin-film battery

main raw materials, including glass (conductive glass and other glass), EVA, Target, as well as gas. Thin-film batteries require a higher conductive glass, the current weak domestic manufacturers, the market mainly from Japan and the United States AFG divide NSG. With the outbreak of domestic film production, is likely to supply the pattern of nervous. Target current domestic supply is still dominated by large international companies, Heraeus, Germany is the world’s largest suppliers, in the domestic market share of over 60%. In addition, there is no domestic production of silane, while the major international manufacturers limited expansion, coupled with demand for LCD and other high silane partial supply still tight, prices remain high does not exclude the possibility to continue to rise.

course, from another perspective, if the domestic enterprises to break through the bottleneck of these developments, will naturally have a strong competitive edge. Crystal silicon solar energy in the current high prices, the thin-film solar cells has ushered in a good development opportunities, market demand for increasingly strong. However, if the next crystal silicon solar energy prices fell sharply, thin-film solar cell products in the market demand may be affected. Experts advise investors must take note of the market risks. (08-9-26)

Tags: film, silicon, solar, thin