INDUSTRY

事件：
跌17第三次全会
帷幕，会议精神指出，随着农村消费相关的因素有：

努力摆脱中国已进入城乡二元结构，形成城乡经济社会一体化的新格局发展的阶段，我们必须集中在农村地区关键的结构改革取得突破性进展;

二千〇二十零年，我们认识到，农民人均纯收入比2008年翻了一番，更多的农村基本生活保障，基本医疗卫生制度更加健全，消费水平显着增加。

评论：

我们认为这次会议的影响将惠及农村白色家电消费的增长，短期增长来促进中期和长期的作用是来自从农村居民消费信心的农村后改革措施的实施，农民收入和改善生活的下降。

冰箱，作为各行业的贡献的总销售额农村消费的结果洗衣机大于空调，农村居民冰洗产品的保留，远低于同期城镇居民收入保持冰箱的数量已经，洗衣机产品不久将在试点家电产品，包括到农村，和空调不具备上述条件，在农村地区的白分利益用电增长界别较为冰箱和洗衣机。

我们使用了国内市场容量模型09,10测量冰箱，在100户农村洗衣机已在对两个百分点的基础上进一步增加原预测量的增长速度，在2010年前清洗机器附表1.1更新1.2因素，改善这一状况，冰箱销售和在农村地区洗衣机在2009年的增长率为26％和25％（原16.4％和18.6％），2010年20％和39％（原5.5 ％和36.4％），预计到冰箱，洗衣机将有助于2009年的总销售额增长了6.24个百分点，冰箱，洗衣机，2010年电冰箱8个百分点，4.8个百分点，洗衣机11.6百分之。

继续建议关注业务多元化的企业青岛海尔电器和美丽。

农村居民将大大增强消费者的信心

改革开放30年前增加了一年的大部分城市和农村地区的收入差距，农村居民收入增长低于城镇居民，形成城乡二元经济，城市消费社会一直是消费增长的重要力量。本次会议和2020年农民人均纯收入比2008年翻一番目标的实现，意味着在未来12个至少保持在百分之六以上的复合增长速度，将增加农村居民收入的稳定增长信心。

此外，在农村地区，基本医疗卫生制度的基本生活费用，改善农民的生活，降低成本，保护他们的未来生活，所以能够在这个人生阶段投入更多的收入，消费。

收入增长，生活费用下降，未来的生活保障，农村居民的消费信心鼓舞起来很快就会出现，便会采取农村消费的增长。

农村白色家电同期消费和收入之间的差距，城市和城镇的消费水平会降低

农户保持白色货物的数量也低于同期城镇居民收入水平。 2007年农村家庭年人均纯收入四千一百四十〇元，接近城镇人均在1995年人均可支配收入的4283元水平。并在2007年农村居民平均每100个主要耐用消费品拥有的为8.5单位空调，冰箱单位26.1，45.94洗衣机的单位，除空调以外，在1995年卷的人刚刚超过城镇居民（刚刚超过空调由于中国是在1992年后才空调普及），冰箱只在1988年的水平，9年城镇居民的差异，洗衣机甚至低于城镇1985年水平低，差距达12年。

当然，这种差距也有生活环境和生活方式的原因，包括农村用电难购买不便洗衣习惯不同，不同气候条件和其他原因。但随着国家近年来在农村电网建设的投入，以及与电力，城市和农村地区逐步实施的价格，农村用电条件正在迅速改善。商务部于2005年开始，“一个1000万的农村市场工程”村，在2008年的“家电下乡”，家电销售终端网络日益渗透到乡镇甚至是村一级。因此，近年来，农村空调，冰箱有双位数字的增长数额已超过了洗衣机拥有量的增长率也在7％左右仍然存在。我们相信，这次会议以后，无论是在农民收入水平，生活条件或消费者的心态将进一步改善，近年来，农民生活观念的农民工大潮的陪同下，互联网的普及是一个很大的改善，它受低收入和低保障的状态，消费需求和消费欲望储蓄到像一个水库，以便尽快释放将有更大的促进实际消费。冰箱和洗衣机

行业将受益于更高的

据我们估计，2007年农村消费约占全部空调销量的5％，24％的冰箱，洗衣机32％，对国内空调销售量增长了9％ ，38％冰箱，洗衣机46％。今年出口销售在农村消费中的比重下降，城市增长速度将进一步改善。表明，在冰箱农村消费的拉动作用和洗衣机行业更加明显。
人均年收入四千二百八十三元城镇居民
时冰箱和洗衣机的拥有者已达到66个和89个单位，目前的年人均农村居民和城镇居民收入在当时的水平，与水平对40个单位的差距应能缩小产量。

此外，由于价格较高的空调，调节功能的福祉较大的可选的，所以对冰箱的需求，农村居民和洗衣机比空气压调节，从家用电器到农村试点产品的选择还可以查看到这一点。此外，商会，家电协会综合部部已制定了家电下乡，以进一步促进家电实施试点的农村将在山东，四川，河南各省同一区域的基础关于在古代，辽宁，黑龙江，安徽，湖北，湖南，广西，重庆，陕西9个省市的增加，而在彩电，冰箱，手机，洗衣机产品增加的试点范围;目前的程序只，如国务院批准。据财政部预测研究部在2009年，12个省和家用电器实施城市到对中央财政支出48.00亿农村，预计将实现比普通家电的30多个农村地区的销售％的销售增长，带动了农村消费增加140.00亿元。

我们使用了国内市场容量模型09,10测量冰箱，在100户农村洗衣机已在对两个百分点的基础上进一步增加原预测量的增长速度，在2010年前清洗机器附表1.1更新1.2因素，改善这一状况，冰箱销售和在农村地区洗衣机在2009年的增长率为26％和25％（原16.4％和18.6％），2010年20％和39％（原5.5 ％和36.4％），预期冰箱和洗衣机将有助于2009年的总销售额增长了6.24个百分点，冰箱，洗衣机，2010年电冰箱8个百分点，4.8个百分点，洗衣机11.6百分之。

Home Appliances Industry: Third Plenary will benefit rural white electricity consumption

Event:

Down 17 Third Plenary Session of the curtain, the spirit of the meeting pointed out that with the rural consumer-related elements have:

strive to get rid of China has entered the urban-rural dual structure, the formation of urban and rural economic and social the development of new pattern of integration stage, we must concentrate on key structural reforms in rural areas to make a breakthrough;

2020 years, we realize the per capita peasant net income more than doubling in 2008, rural basic living necessities, basic medical and health system more robust, the level of consumption increased dramatically.

Comments:

we consider the impact of this conference will benefit the rural white goods consumption growth, short-term comes from the consumer confidence of rural residents increased role in promoting medium and long term is derived from the of the rural areas after the implementation of reform measures the income of farmers and improve the cost of living decline.

refrigerators and washing machines as a result of the rural consumption of each industry’s contribution to the total sales volume is greater than air-conditioning, rural residents retain ice washing products is much lower than the same period the income of urban residents to maintain the volume of the refrigerator has been, washing machines will soon Products included in the pilot home appliances to the countryside; and air-conditioning does not have the above conditions, the electricity consumption growth in rural areas benefit from the white sub-sectors are more refrigerators and washing machines.

we use the domestic market capacity model 09,10 measured the refrigerators and washing machines in rural areas of the 100 households have the volume growth rate in the original prediction based on the further increase of two percentage points, washing machines in 2010 ahead of schedule update factor by 1.1 to improve 1.2 the situation, the sales of refrigerators and washing machines in rural areas the growth rate in 2009 were 26% and 25% (formerly 16.4% and 18.6%), 2010 20% and 39% (formerly 5.5% and 36.4%), is expected to refrigerators and washing machines will contribute to the growth of total sales in 2009 were 6.24 percentage points refrigerators, washing machines 8 percentage points in 2010 Fridge 4.8 percentage points, washing machines 11.6 percent.

continue to recommend diversified concern business enterprises Qingdao Haier appliances and beauty.

rural residents will significantly enhance consumer confidence

reform and opening up three decades ago to increase the income gap between urban and rural areas, rural residents income growth in most of the year are lower than urban residents, the formation of urban-rural dual economic, urban consumer society has been a major force in the growth of consumption. And this meeting to achieve in 2020 the per capita peasant net income more than double the 2008 goal, means that the next 12 years of compound growth rate of at least maintained at above 6 percent, will increase the income of rural residents for the steady growth of confidence.

In addition, the basic cost of living in rural areas, basic medical health system and improve the lives of the farmers will reduce costs, protect their future lives, so be able to devote more income to the consumer at this stage of life.

income growth, cost of living dropped, the future of life are protected, together for the rural residents inspire consumer confidence will soon appear, will react to the growth of rural consumption.

white goods in rural areas the same period consumption and income gap between cities and towns the level of consumption will be reduced

rural households to maintain the volume of white goods is also lower than the same period the income level of urban residents. Rural households in 2007 per capita annual net income of 4140 yuan, close to the urban per capita disposable income in 1995 the level of 4283 yuan. And rural residents in 2007 averaged 100 major durable consumer goods owned were 8.5 Units Air Conditioning, Fridge Units 26.1, 45.94 washing machines Units; except air-conditioning just over urban residents in 1995 other than the owner of the volume (just over air-conditioning is due in 1992 in China until after the popularization of air conditioning), refrigerator only for urban residents in 1988 level, a difference of 9 years, washing machines or even lower than the level of cities and towns in 1985, the gap reached 12 years.

Of course, this gap also has the living environment and lifestyle reasons, including rural electricity difficult purchase inconvenience laundry habits are different in different climatic conditions and other reasons. But with the country in recent years in the construction of rural power input, as well as with the price of electricity in urban and rural areas gradually implemented, the conditions of the rural electricity is rapidly improving. Ministry of Commerce began in 2005, “the village of a thousand million rural market project”, in 2008 the “household appliances to the countryside,” home appliances sales terminal network increasingly permeating the township and even village level. Therefore, in recent years, rural air conditioners, refrigerators have the amount of double-digit growth has been more than the volume of washing machines have a growth rate also remained at about 7%. We believe that after this meeting, whether in peasant income level, living conditions or consumer mentality will further improve, in recent years the concept of peasant life accompanied by the great tide of migrant workers, the popularity of the Internet has been a considerable improvement, it is subject to low-income and low protection status, consumer demand and consumer desire for savings up to be like a reservoir, so as soon as the release will have a greater promotion of actual consumption. refrigerators and washing machines

industry will benefit from greater

According to our estimates, rural consumption in 2007 accounted for about all the air-conditioning sales 5%, 24% refrigerators, washing machines 32%; about domestic Air conditioning sales 9%, 38% refrigerators, washing machines 46%. This year sales growth rate of exports and urban decline in the proportion of rural consumption will further improve. Shows that the pulling effect of rural consumption in refrigerators and washing machines industry becomes even more evident.

of urban residents per capita annual income of 4283 yuan when the owner of refrigerators and washing machines has reached 66 and 89 Units, the current annual per capita income of rural residents and urban residents in the level of the level at the time, with the volume of the gap 40 Units should be able to shrink more.

In addition, due to higher air conditioning prices, regulating the function of the well-being of the larger optional, so the rural residents of the demand for refrigerators and washing machines more pressing than the air-conditioning, from home appliances to the countryside pilot product selection can also look to make this point. Moreover, the Comprehensive Department of Ministry of Commerce, home appliances association has drawn up the appliances to the countryside to further promote the pilot program in the implementation of home appliances to the countryside will be in the same region of Shandong, Sichuan and Henan provinces based on the increase within the ancient, Liaoning, Heilongjiang, Anhui , Hubei, Hunan, Guangxi, Chongqing, Shaanxi nine provinces and municipalities, while the pilot product range in color television sets, refrigerators, mobile phones increase in washing machines; current program only, such as State Council for approval. According to the Ministry of Finance prediction research, in 2009, 12 provinces and cities in the implementation of home appliances to the countryside about the central fiscal expenditure 4.8 billion, is expected to implement the rural areas than the normal home appliances sales by more than 30% sales growth, driven consumption in rural areas add 14 billion yuan.

we use the domestic market capacity model 09,10 measured the refrigerators and washing machines in rural areas of the 100 households have the volume growth rate in the original prediction based on the further increase of two percentage points, washing machines in 2010 ahead of schedule update factor by 1.1 to improve 1.2 the situation, the sales of refrigerators and washing machines in rural areas the growth rate in 2009 were 26% and 25% (formerly 16.4% and 18.6%), 2010 20% and 39% (formerly 5.5% and 36.4%); expected refrigerators and washing machines will contribute to the growth of total sales in 2009 were 6.24 percentage points refrigerators, washing machines 8 percentage points in 2010 Fridge 4.8 percentage points, washing machines 11.6 percent. (08-10-15)

Tags: growth, machines, rural, washing