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2007年6月，非铁金属价格继续下跌，伦敦金属交易所（LME非）有色金属价格指数下跌百分之3.94，上升7.86个百分点今年开始。随着市场进入

消费淡季，不仅发生在价格下降，物种之间的差异也比较明显。

生产中断和中国继续在关税增加，以支持铅的价格，导致价格上涨16.16百分之6月，成为最好的品种。伦敦金属交易所镍贷款和修改法规和中国主要不锈钢生产商削减20联合百分之压力则下降至3.62万元/吨水平，或达到22.4％，占今年年初仅增长了百分之8.63。

此外，虽然印尼的第三卡矿业公司电力公司的消息意外的市场反应，但镍价仍然未能扭转大幅向下的命运。同时，在市场铜价下跌的忧虑下，摇摆不定的美国经济数据和罢工，并最终上升百分之4.91。产品供求紧张
撒哈拉重点行业的增长和稳定

根据世界金属统计局（材料WBMs的胞质）的最新数据，2007年1〜4月的主要非有色金属仍相对紧张的供求关系。其中，铜，铝，铅，锡差距短缺176,000吨，六点二零零万吨11.1万吨，三九零零吨。据统计中不包括国储库存变化等非报告库存的因素，业界认为该数据可能夸大了短缺的程度，因为在大力支持，非中国因素在有色金属总供给和需求的平衡状态。尽管消费价格淡季将不得不抑制，但经济合作与发展组织（经合组织）领先指数已组织4个月上升，全球经济依然良好，让人们仍对业界的前景表示乐观。

库存变化，在6月伦敦金属交易所的铜库存和铅最明显，跌幅分别达到11.03％和5.35％，而上海期货交易所（SHFE）和纽约商品交易所（COMEX）铜库存出现在4.87％和19.55％的跌幅。业内人士认为，中国的确是前消化大量进口铜，但整个报告中的全球库存下降表明这一过程是一个好的方向发展。此外，锡库存增加百分之30.6，库存量增加6月，是最明显的金属，但仍稍低于年初水平。

1〜5个月，中国的表观消费量的非数据显示，有色金属的生产和消费，但一般比略有下降，环，但去年同期增幅仍然较为明显。

其中，铅，铜，中铝的表观消费量增幅高于产量增长，中国因素是更重要的物种。铜，铅的生产在6月的变化均高于1〜每月5，显示出加速供应的迹象。

5个月，中国的铜和铜产量都创历史新高，达到5.61比百分之282200吨和五二一九○○吨，中央和0.65％的增长，但表观消费量由14.90％和0.87％，降低了环比下降，进口37.3％和9.04％。虽然比在铜价下跌的条款环表观消费量是不是一个好消息，但必须看到它的年同比增长37.54仍然是一个较高水平。

同时由于表观铜消费，将会受到国储库存，在期货市场的交易和其他因素的变化，铜的数据可以更真实的需求变化的反映。因此，一个更加稳定的铜表观消费数据显示，中国铜的需求仍处于相对稳定的增长。

铜冶炼加工费用，降低企业盈利下降

现在，在日本，每年两次铜加工费（长单合约）谈判开始在亚洲，铜价格继续单长度加工下降。 6月，日本的年中铜加工（技术/局）最终被确定的50美元〜收费55美元/吨和5.0美分至5.5美分/磅，没有价格分享（聚丙烯条款）的规定，这价格有效期为2007年7月至2008年6月。在此之前，北德已印尼巴都希贾乌铜和黄金必须达成一项协议，合作/局60 / 6，非聚丙烯条件。

谈判与前60 / 6相比，铜加工费出现进一步下降。考虑到现货铜加工费已经降低到20 / 2（非聚丙烯计算）的水平，这一结果仍是铜加工企业能够接受的。

国内铜冶炼产能不断扩大：6月18日，经过近两年的建设，山东阳谷祥光铜业有限公司40万吨阴极铜（20万吨）年产项目的第一次点火成功。该项目采用闪速熔炼和闪光的先进技术吹，是世界上建造的最大的铜冶炼厂第一。由于该项目位于靠近铜矿有对所有进口原料没有可用的资源。该公司与中国五矿有色金属有限公司，世界最大的金属资源巨头必和必拓以及弗兰克金属矿业集团有限公司，形成双方在铜等原材料的长期战略伙伴关系集中如长期战略合作协议的签署供应国内和国际采矿区。

与此同时，江西铜业30万吨粗铜冶炼也计划8月1日点火，市场参与者认为自己的铜矿产量增长有限，其原料可能会更由废铜提供长期江铜盈余依赖外包或铜材料。
在国内铜加工费谈判，目前没有达成任何协议。业内人士认为，国内冶炼产量超过日本能力的企业，应该有能力出价较高，但目前的环境是非常不利的冶炼企业，主要的原因有两个：一方面，一个大型国际矿业生产在2009年后逐渐增加，原材料短期改善情况的长期短缺的困难。另一方面，这里的地雷袭击事件加剧了原材料供应的忧虑。国内炼油能力与市场的不断扩大，预计加上目前为55/5.5的谈判结果，预计在2009年反弹，铜加工费大幅困难。

专家指出，这意味着对集中冶炼纯进口将难以分享行业的蓬勃发展，一些规模不经济，技术落后的企业将被迫减少甚至停止生产，从而抑制企业盈利在长短期的改善，长期将提高国内铜冶炼行业的竞争力。因此，有些已经开始加工铜的国内企业，一铜加工费结果业务将受到影响的性能下降。

据了解，为了解决铜加工费下降所带来的经营风险，一些中国企业已积极采取措施去处理，主要包括：更好地控制废料（如江西铜业铜资源，云南铜业），向深加工工业（如铜）链下游延伸，直接进入矿井的额外资源。扩散铝

国内外扩大关于铝出口退税

带来短期的出口退税率调整计划的长期影响后认为，该行业引进较以往预期温和。批准了国务院，2007年6月18日，财政部和国家税务和其他部门联合下发了行政部的“财政部，国家税务总局关于出口退税的部分商品，”退税率下调幅度规定自2007年7月1日起，调整了出口退税政策的商品，其中涉及非有色金属工业，包括铝，钨，锌，铅，镍及其他金属加工材料的组成部分。

作为铝行业调控的重点，包括丝，经修正，棒，型材和配置文件（包括合金和非合金）和原退税率等品种（8％或11％）被取消。根据今年1〜4的进口和出口数据，用于对八九二一○○吨出口退税完全取消物种个月，铝出口占（铝含产品）42.55％，出口总额达3.02亿美元美元，占出口铝（铝产品含36.60％）。虽然调整的范围和强度较大，但在市场对铝箔等深加工产品不担心调整清单，并表明在注意给予行业的监管，政府，却仍然在一定程度上的保护。

调整最直接的影响是国内铝的价格膨胀，同时考虑到中国的铝出口的整体技术含量不高，议价能力有限，业界认为，在短期内铝价将出现国内价格，国际价格上涨的情况。

据2007年中国的31电解铝生产CRU的英国公司的国际分析，将是350万吨的生产能力总量增加，其生产将主要在今年下半年集中，业界认为这很可能引发在这一年国家继续采取控制措施。

与此同时，国内消费将保持强劲，铝价格下跌和温和的宏观控制的生产也将在一定程度上，所以在铝价格的波动将会相对有限。
的政策调整
反映了政府遏制铝冶炼能力扩大投资和长期行业长期健康发展的决心。同时，铝将扩大在国内外的蔓延，抑制了铝的形成。长远而言，对投资和出口国的铝工业控制持续下去，因为仍有税收调整的余地。

The overall non-ferrous metal prices increased differentiation of sub-sectors

June 2007, non-ferrous metals prices continued to fall, the London Metal Exchange (LME) of non-ferrous metals price index fell 3.94 percent, up 7.86 percent over the beginning of the year. With the market entry

consumption off-season, not only occurred in the price down, the differentiation between species is also more obvious.

production interruption and China continue to increase in tariffs to support the price of lead, making lead prices rose 16.16 percent, in June to become the best varieties. LME nickel lending and modify regulations and China’s major stainless steel producers cut 20 percent of the joint pressure has dropped sharply to 36,200 yuan / ton level, or to reach 22.4%, representing the beginning of the year rose only 8.63 percent.

In addition, although the market in Indonesia on the 3rd ANTAM electric company news accidents to react, but the nickel price is still unable to reverse the sharp downward fate. At the same time, copper prices in the market on worries the U.S. economy and strikes under the wavering information, and ultimately rose 4.91 percent. Product supply and demand tension
the main focus of sub-industry growth and stability

according to the World Metal Statistics (WBMS) the latest data, in 2007 1 ~ April of the main non-ferrous metals is still relatively tight supply-demand relationship. Among them, copper, aluminum, lead, tin gaps were 176,000 tons, 62,000 tons, 111,000 tons and 3900 tons. As the statistics are not included in State Reserve inventory changes and other non-report inventory of factors, the industry think the data may have overstated the extent of the shortage, because the China factor in the strong support of, non-ferrous metals in the overall supply and demand more balanced state. Although the consumer price off-season will have to suppress, but the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) leading index has been up for 4 months, the global economy is still good to let people remain optimistic about the prospects of the industry.

change in inventory, in June LME stockpiles of copper and lead the most significant decrease, respectively, to reach 11.03% and 5.35%, while the Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) and the New York Mercantile Exchange (COMEX) copper stocks appeared in 4.87% and 19.55% decline. The industry believes that China is indeed in the pre-digestion and substantial imports of copper, but the entire global inventory decline in the report suggest that this process is the development of a good direction. In addition, tin stocks rose 30.6 percent, increase in inventories in June are the most obvious of metal, but still slightly below the level of the beginning of the year.

1 ~ 5 months, China’s apparent consumption of non-ferrous metals data show that production and consumption in general although the ring than the slight decline, but year-on-year rate of increase is still more obvious.

Among them, lead, copper, aluminum increase in the apparent consumption is higher than output growth, the China factor is more significant species. Copper and lead changes in production in June were higher than 1 ~ 5 per month, showing signs of accelerated supply.

5 months, China’s output of copper and copper have hit a record high, reached 282,200 tons and 521,900 tons, the Central than the 5.61 percent and an increase of 0.65%, but the apparent consumption decreased by 14.90% and 0.87%, the Central than the decline in imports were 37.3% and 9.04%. Although the apparent consumption of the ring than in terms of the decrease in copper prices is not good news, but it must be to see its year-on-year increase of 37.54 percent is still a relatively high level.

the same time, because of the apparent copper consumption will be affected by changes in State Reserve Stock futures market transactions and other factors, copper data can be more true reflection of the changing demands. Therefore, a more stable copper apparent consumption data show that copper demand in China is still in relatively stable growing.

copper smelting processing fees lower the profitability of the business fell

Now, in Japan, twice a year copper processing fees (long single contract) negotiations began in Asia, copper prices have continued to single-length processing decline. June, Japan mid-year copper processing fees (TC / RC) eventually identified as 50 U.S. dollars ~ 55 U.S. dollars / ton and 5.0 cents to 5.5 cents / pound, there is no price to share the terms of (PP terms), this price is valid for from July 2007 to June 2008. Prior to this, Norddeutsche has printed Nipah Hijau copper and gold have to reach an agreement, TC / RC 60 / 6, non-PP terms.

negotiated with the previous 60 / 6 compared to copper processing fees appear further down. Taking into account the spot copper processing fees have been reduced to 20 / 2 (non-PP terms) level, this result is still copper processing enterprises are able to accept.

domestic copper smelting production capacity continues to expand: June 18, after nearly two years after construction, Shandong Yanggu祥光Copper Co., Ltd. 400,000 tons annual output of copper cathode (a 200,000 tons) project the success of the first ignition. The project uses flash flash smelting and blowing of advanced technologies, is the world’s first built the largest copper smelter. As the project is located near the copper mine there is no available resources to all imports of raw materials. The company has with China Minmetals Nonferrous Metals Co. Ltd., the world’s largest metal resources giant BHP Billiton as well as the Frank Metal Mining Group Co., Ltd. to form a long-term strategic partnership with each other raw materials in the copper concentrate supply and domestic and international mining areas such as the signing of a long-term strategic cooperation agreement.

At the same time, Jiangxi Copper 300,000 tons of blister copper smelting also plans ignition August 1, market participants think of their own copper mines limited output growth, and its raw materials may be more dependent on Jiang surplus provided by long copper scrap copper or copper materials outsourcing.
in the domestic copper processing fee negotiations, the current did not reach any agreement. The industry believes that the domestic smelting enterprises in production capacity over Japan, this should have the ability to bid higher, but the current environment is very unfavorable for the smelting business, the main two reasons: on the one hand, a large international mining production in gradually increased after 2009, raw materials shortage of short-term difficulties in improving the situation. On the other hand, here’s mine strike incident exacerbated the worries of supply of raw materials. Domestic refining capacity coupled with the continued expansion of the market is expected to present the outcome of the negotiations for the 55/5.5 and it is expected to copper processing fees in 2009 rebounded sharply difficult.

experts pointed out, this means that imports of pure concentrate for smelting will be difficult to share the industry boom, some of the lack of economies of scale, backward technology enterprises will be forced to cut or even stop production, thereby suppressing corporate profits in the short term improvement in long-term will enhance the domestic copper smelting industry’s competitiveness. Therefore, some have already started processing copper business of domestic enterprises, a result of copper processing fees will be affected by the decline in performance.

It is understood that, in order to resolve the decline in copper processing fees brought about by operational risks, some Chinese enterprises have been actively taking initiatives to deal with, mainly include: more control over scrap copper resources (such as Jiangxi Copper, Yunnan Copper ), to the lower reaches of deep-processing industrial chain extension (such as copper), directed additional resources into the mine. Spread aluminum

at home and abroad to expand the export tax rebate on aluminum

have short-term impact of the export tax rebate rate adjustment programs following the introduction of the industry think more than the previous expected to moderate. Approved by the State Council, June 18, 2007, the Ministry of Finance and State Administration of Taxation and other departments jointly issued the “Ministry of Finance, the State Administration of Taxation on the reduction of export tax rebate rate of some commodities,” which provides that since July 2007 1 date, adjust some of the goods of the export tax rebate policy, which involves non-ferrous metals industry, including aluminum, tungsten, zinc, lead, nickel and other metal parts of the processing material.

as the focus of regulation in the aluminum industry, including the Wire, as amended, rod, profiles and profile (including alloy and non alloy) and other varieties of the original rebate rate (8% or 11%) were canceled . According to this year 1 ~ 4 months of import and export data, the species of the total abolition of tax rebates for exports of 892,100 tons, accounting for exports of aluminum (aluminum-containing products) 42.55%; Total exports amounted to 3.02 billion U.S. dollars, accounting for exports of aluminum (aluminum-containing products) of 36.60%. Although adjust the scope and intensity of the larger, but before the market worried about the aluminum foil and other deep-processed products do not adjust the list, and demonstrates the Government in the regulation of attention given to the industry while still a certain degree of protection.

adjust the most direct impact is the expansion of the domestic aluminum price, taking into account China’s export of aluminum the overall technical content is still not high, bargaining power is limited, the industry think aluminum prices in the short term will emergence of domestic prices, international prices rose situation.

According to CRU International Analysis of UK companies, in 2007 China’s electrolytic aluminum production of 31 will be an aggregate increase of 3.5 million tons of production capacity, its production will be mainly concentrated in the second half of the year, the industry think this is likely to trigger country during the year continue to take control measures.

At the same time, domestic consumption will remain strong, aluminum prices fell and the moderate macro-control of production will also have a certain extent, so fluctuations in aluminum prices will be relatively limited.

of the policy adjustment reflected the Government to contain aluminum smelting capacity expansion of investment and the determination of long-term health of the industry development. At the same time, aluminum will widen the spread at home and abroad, to suppress the formation of aluminum. In the long run, the aluminum industry on the country of investment and export-control continues, because there is still room for tax adjustments. (07-7-18)

Tags: aluminum, copper, industry, processing