China’s foreign trade policy next year, may be inclined to encourage exports
when the global financial crisis, spreading toward the real economy, the Chinese trade data for September surprisingly strong. The foreign trade situation next year will cause trouble to China’s economic growth or continue to play a locomotive role?
Chinese Ministry of Commerce International Trade and Economic Cooperation Li Yushi, deputy director of Institute of expected export growth next year, while China will be lower than the previous year, still is expected to reach about 15% and imports increased by about 15-20%, throughout the year the trade surplus may be slightly lower than in 2008. However, once next year’s export growth slow down too fast, foreign trade policy to encourage exports are expected to be tilted, including the slowdown in yuan appreciation.
Chinese exports in September grew 21.5%, imports grew 21.3% to 29.3 billion U.S. dollars surplus in new record high. It is worth mentioning that this is also the export growth since the first time since March of this year more than imports. Trade surplus from January to September this year, nearly 1,830 billion dollars. 2007 was a record high of 2,622 billion U.S. dollars of history.
China’s gross domestic product (GDP) growth in the contribution rate of foreign trade as high as 24%.
Li Yushi, told Reuters in a telephone interview, said that from the current situation is expected exports this year can still maintain a 20% increase, taking into account this year, the main factors affecting export business, including a substantial appreciation of the RMB exchange rate and export of previously cut the impact of tax rebate policy, etc. It is estimated that these factors may be weakening, will significantly slow down the pace of yuan appreciation.
he said, “Although some of the advantages of Chinese exports this year has been the appreciation of the RMB exchange rate and rising costs erase; but the chain in the world division of labor, China’s main export some daily consumer goods, there are a number of products are also designed products for the international market, China still has a strong export competitiveness. “
Li Yushi, is expected to increase appreciation of the renminbi is expected to slow next year, as well as the Chinese government is increasing efforts to support small and medium enterprises, including financial and many other context, reducing pressure on export enterprises, have contributed to steady growth of China’s exports next year.
to Wednesday only, since the yuan against the dollar this year, the accumulated increase of about 6.9%, which increased up to 6.56% in the first half, showing the financial turmoil, the second half of the RMB appreciation rate has slowed down significantly. Yuan last year, compared with an increase of 6.86%.
Chinese Academy of Social Sciences recently released “2008 Fall Report,” predicts that in 2008 China’s import and export growth rate will reach around 30.0% and 22.6%; annual trade surplus would be slightly lower than the previous year to reach 2,510 billion U.S. dollars.
policy-making should take precautions
changing the face of continuing global financial crisis, Li Yushi believes that “the key to what extent depends on the evolution? the current downward trend in foreign orders has been quite clear that if because of external demand weaken next year, China’s export growth fell below 10%, the problem is very serious. “
Bank of China Deputy Governor Yi Gang said Sunday, as exports will be subject to the current financial crisis caused by global economic growth release relieve the negative effects of China’s economic growth next year are expected from the expected 10% this year, fell to 9%. China’s economy will be mainly driven by domestic consumer demand and foreign investment support, while the contribution of exports on economic growth may be zero or negative.
Li Yushi believes that foreign trade is still a strong driving China’s economic growth momentum, once the rapid slowdown in export growth will inevitably affect China’s domestic production, consumption and unemployment, so policies need to be adjusted accordingly face, it is estimated next year will be to encourage exports the direction of tilt.
but he was not in favor of the decline in exports to encourage exports, exports of many on the reduction or even elimination of export tax rebate “stop-gap” approach. But rather that the foreign trade policy adjustments, the export list should start with a clear division of science to start, especially as “the second one capital” (high-pollution and high energy consumption and resource-based) definition of goods, Fang contribute to the adjustment of the real meaning of foreign trade structure.
“Under the present criteria for the classification of export wood floors are” two high and one owned “products, are restricted and prohibited, but in fact the production of timber wood floors are renewable forest, to encourage such exports, farmers and the local ecological environment is good. ” For example, he said.
2007 years when China’s foreign trade policy to adjust the frequency of the most intensive one-year, based on the purpose of reducing surplus during the year, including several substantial adjustment or even abolish some of the goods, including textiles, export tax rebates.
this year, involved in the rapid appreciation pressure on the yuan and the original estimated costs and the impact of tight monetary policy, exporters complain incessantly, the brink of collapse, which is particularly textile enterprises. To this end, in August this year, China also raise textile export tax rebates, to reduce pressure on the industry.
Li Yushi said China’s foreign trade policy formulation there has been errors in the value of net exports over value, too concerned about textile, steel and other more labor-intensive and polluting industries exports, hoping to change by adjusting the tax rebate, etc. industrial structure.
“In fact textile export has always been our strength, China has a huge iron and steel production capacity, we should face up to the world division of labor between the pattern of the chain.” He pointed out sharply.
中国的对外贸易政策，明年可能倾向于鼓励出口
当全球金融危机，对实体经济蔓延，九月份中国贸易数据意外强劲。外贸明年的情况会导致麻烦中国的经济增长或继续发挥火车头的作用？
中国商务部国际贸易经济合作李雨的出口增长预期研究所副所长，明年部，而中国会比上年降低，但预计约15％，进口达到增加了约15-20％，全年贸易顺差可能略低于2008年水平。然而，一旦明年的出口增长放缓过快，外贸政策，以鼓励出口预计将倾斜，其中包括人民币升值放缓。
9月中国出口增长21.5％，进口增长21.3％增至29.3亿美元，贸易顺差创下新高。值得一提的是，这也是自今年以来的进口比上年增加3月首次出口增长。贸易1月至今年9月顺差近1830亿美元。 2007年创纪录的2622亿美元的历史高度。
中国的国内生产总值（GDP）的外贸增长的贡献率高达24％。
李雨时说，在接受路透电话采访时说，从目前的情况，预计今年的出口仍可保持20％的增长，考虑到今年的主要因素影响了出口业务，其中包括大幅升值人民币汇率和以前削减税收出口退税政策的影响等，估计，这些因素可能会减弱，将显着放慢人民币升值步伐。
他说，“虽然一些今年一直是人民币汇率升值及成本上升，消除我国出口的优势，但在世界的劳动分工链条，中国的主要出口一些日常消费品，还有一些产品也是专为国际市场的产品，中国仍然具有很强的出口竞争力。“
李雨时预计将增加，人民币升值，预计将在明年减缓，以及中国政府正在加倍努力，支持中小型企业，包括金融和许多其他方面，减少对出口企业的压力，促成了中国的出口稳定增长明年。
周三只，由于人民币兑美元，今年约6.9％，从而增加了上半年的累积增长6.56％，显示金融风暴，人民币升值幅度下半年有增长速度明显放慢。元，去年则为6.86％的增长。
中国社科院最近发布的“2008年秋季报告”预测，2008年中国的进口和出口增长速度达到30.0％和22.6％，年贸易盈余将较上年降低，达到2,510亿美元。
决策应当采取预防措施
改变着持续的全球金融危机面前，黎吁酾认为：“在何种程度上取决于关键的演化？目前在国外订单下降的趋势已很明显，如果由于外部需求减弱，明年中国的出口增长低于10％下降，但问题是很严重的。“
的中国副行长易胳嗯银行今天说，由于出口将受到当前金融危机造成的全球经济增长释放缓解中国经济增长的负面影响明年的预期从10％，今年预计下降至9％。中国的经济将主要是由于国内消费需求和外国投资的支持，而出口对经济增长的贡献可能是零或负数。
黎吁嘘认为，外贸仍是一个巨大的推动中国的经济增长动力，一旦出口增长速度急剧放慢将不可避免地影响到中国的国内生产，消费和失业，所以政策必须作相应的调整面，估计明年将是鼓励出口的倾斜方向。
但他在出口下降不利于鼓励出口，对减少，甚至出口退税的“头痛医头，脚痛医脚”的做法消除许多出口。而是在外贸政策调整，出口清单应作一个科学的明确分工开始，特别是“第二个资本”（高污染，高能耗和资源为基础的定义）的货物，方作出贡献到了外贸结构调整的真正意义。
根据对出口木地板的分类的现行标准“是”两高和拥有“产品，一类是限制，禁止，但实际上在木材生产的木地板可再生林木，以鼓励这些出口，农民和当地的生态环境是好的。“例如，他说。
二零零七年时中国的对外贸易政策调整最密集的一年就减少年内盈余，其中包括一些大幅调整甚至取消部分商品，包括纺织品，出口的目的，频率退税。
今年，在对人民币快速升值的压力，原来的估计费用和从紧的货币政策的影响有关，出口商抱怨不断，崩溃，这是特别纺织企业的边缘。为此，在今年8月，中国还提高纺织品出口退税，以减少对行业的压力。
李雨时表示中国的外贸政策的制定也已超过出口值，净值被错误，太在意纺织，钢铁及其他更多的劳动密集和污染行业的出口，希望通过调整退税等产业结构。
“其实纺织品出口一直是我们的实力，中国有一个巨大的钢铁生产能力，我们应该面对之间的供应链模式在世界劳动分工。”他一针见血地指出。
08.10.17