Shenhua coal-oil production further delay
“Shenhua CTL project now looks like there are still put into suspense, in fact the project equipment had been put in place last year, this year has been debugging, but not a finished product, the project may be deferred to the second quarter of next year, in order to put into production.” A coal Industry veteran yesterday on the “First Financial Daily” said. Shenhua Group, a newspaper executives yesterday to confirm that CTL projects are put into further delay, the timetable yet to be determined.
previously vice president of Shenhua Xue Ji-even in the interview, he warned: “China Shenhua CTL project is being developed in accordance with national requirements, the progress smoothly, plans to 9 moonrise oil.” and the original production which is expected in 2007.
China in accordance with God’s stated objectives, expected in 2009 coal-oil production capacity up to 500 million tons, and gradually formed a 30 million tons of oil production capacity. Xue Ji-Lian also said that the project total investment of 100 billion yuan, is China’s key projects with independent intellectual property rights. It is reported that China Shenhua is located in the Ordos (6.41,0.11,1.75%, bar) The first phase of the coal-oil production capacity is estimated to reach 1 million tons, and built capacity of 3 million tons the year after next. Statistics show that 1 million tons / year of coal-oil project requires an investment of 10.0 billion each year consumed 5 million tons of coal, 10 million tons of water.
the project’s technical and control processes responsible for the implementation by Honeywell, while the technological aspects of the offer from Shell.
technology and the dual pressures of water
“about four tons of coal could be out a ton of oil, according to the international prices of coal and oil, as long as international oil prices not less than 23 U.S. dollars / barrel, there are good prospects for coal and oil refining . “Yanzhou Mining Group Vice President, Coal general manager Zhang Minglin had said in an interview.
researcher at the Institute of Coal Chemistry, Chinese Academy of Sciences, State Key Laboratory of Coal Conversion, deputy director of the coal-to-oil project’s chief scientist Yong-Wang Li the previous calculations, the coal direct, indirect liquefaction system for oil products in coal consumption per ton, 3.5 tons, about 4.2 tons. According to the current price of a comprehensive measure of coal pit, when oil prices more than 45 U.S. dollars a barrel, that is profitable. If up to 300 million tons of economies of scale, coupled with improvements in catalytic efficiency, the cost can be reduced.
there are still a lot of people have different opinions, the National Energy Research Institute senior adviser to Mr. Zhou Fengqi that when coal prices reached 1,000 yuan / ton, the cost of coal-oil will reach 10,000 yuan / ton, converted into crude oil price will be 120 U.S. dollars / barrel or so.
However, these are still not the subject of industry debate, due to coal-oil projects require a lot of water, which the northern region for the water shortage is a great challenge.
with the Shenhua CTL project launched, there are a large number of coal-oil projects waiting in the wings. Statistics, the “Eleventh Five-Year” period intends to invest in coal-oil as high as 500 billion yuan of funds. To curb costs, in September this year, notify the State Development and Reform Commission promulgated to strengthen the coal-oil project management. Document clearly stipulated that the present may continue to work coal-oil demonstration projects have already started construction of the direct coal liquefaction project with Shenhua Group Corporation. Shenhua Ningxia Coal Industry Group, in cooperation with the South African Sasol’s Ningxia Ning Dong indirect coal liquefaction project, need to carefully conduct a feasibility study according to the procedure for approval, without the prior permission will be allowed to start. In addition to these projects, all to stop the implementation of other coal-to-oil project.
“Shenhua CTL project is a symbol of the biggest problem at present there should be two reasons, one not yet fully opened up craft links, and the other is the water issue, the current crude oil prices should be less than its the main reason for delay. “China Coal Industry Association, an official said.
margins greatly reduced
China Shenhua Ling, president of shares last year in Beijing to attend the “Finance” magazine annual meeting, said that Shenhua’s future objectives include the integration of acquisition-related rail and port resources, and outside in moderation international operations; the same time, the parent company plans to coal chemical industry, coal-oil business into the listed company.
according to requirements of relevant departments, coal-oil project in 2010, still in the demonstration phase of industrialization, after entering the industrialization development period. Therefore, the most optimistic forecast is to the year 2010, Shenhua coal to oil projects into the listed company.
Capital Operation Department of China Shenhua Huang Bing, general manager of Shenhua return earlier in A shares roadshow had revealed that the overall listing of Shenhua Group, the general steps are: First, China Shenhua Group’s coal assets acquired, and gradually complete the West 5 Company, Bowes God, God-Ning Company, God the acquisition of the new company and other companies; followed by acquisition of the Group’s electricity assets, the gradual completion of the Guohua Energy Investment Co., Ltd., the company’s acquisitions; the end, the acquisition of the right of priority purchase China Shenhua Coal Oil Company Limited and coal-chemical projects.
the total assets of the existing listed companies accounted for 80% of the total assets of Shenhua Group coal output of the existing enterprises will have 70 million tons, so the future is estimated that there are at least 40 million tons of coal production capacity needed to buy. China Shenhua announced this week, two in September 2008 and the first three quarters of the main operational data indicate that 1 in September to achieve net profit 21.94 billion yuan, up by 47.0%, operating income of 77.51 billion yuan, up by 29.0%. Coal production and sales company in the first three quarters year on year growth of 17.6% and 13.0%.
“Shenhua’s performance this year appears to be very good, but on the coal-oil project itself, there is no way to assess, first, still without success, followed by the volatility of international oil prices, coal oil outlook is also an issue worthy of consideration. “The China Coal Industry Association, the official also said.
if in accordance with August’s prices, Erdos CTL project will receive gross profit per ton of diesel 6,000 yuan, the first phase of one million tons of oil equivalent of the gross profits should be up to 60 billion yuan. In the end of October the price of diesel dropped 20% in many regions and even up to 5,500 yuan / ton, thus measuring coal oil gross profit would be greatly reduced.
神华煤,石油生产的进一步拖延
“神华凌文现在看起来还有成悬念地说,实际上该项目设备已经到位,去年,今年已经调试,但不是最终产品,该项目可能推迟到明年第二季今年,为了投入生产。“阿老煤炭工业昨天对“第一财经日报”说。神华集团,报纸负责人昨天证实,CTL项目纳入迟疑地,时间表尚未确定。
以前神华薛及副总裁,甚至在采访中,他警告说:“中国神华凌文正在按照国家的规定制定,进展顺利,计划9月出油。”和原来的生产,预计在2007年。
在上帝的说,2009年煤炭,石油生产能力高达5亿吨预期目标,根据中国,并逐步形成了石油生产能力为3000万吨。薛继连说,该项目的1000.00亿元总投资,是具有自主知识产权的中国重点项目。据报道,中国神华是在位于鄂尔多斯(6.41,0.11,1.75%,吧)在第一阶段的煤,石油生产能力预计达到100万吨,建成300万吨的年生产能力后年。据统计,有100万吨/年煤转油项目需要投资10.0亿元,每年消耗500万吨煤,10万吨水。
该项目的技术和控制过程由霍尼韦尔公司的负责实施,而从壳牌提供了技术问题。
技术和水资源的双重压力下
约4吨煤,“可能是出油吨,根据煤炭和石油的国际价格,只要国际油价不低于23美元/桶,有煤炭和炼油良好的前景。“兖矿集团副总裁,煤炭总经理张明林曾在接受采访时说。
在山西煤炭化学,中国科学院,国家重点实验室,煤转化,煤副主任转油项目首席科学家李永旺以前的计算,煤直接,间接液化系统研究所研究员煤炭消费量为每吨3.5吨,4.2吨石油产品。根据对矿井,当油价超过45美元一桶,这是盈利的综合性措施,目前的价格。如果达300万吨的经济规模,在加上催化效率的提高,成本可以降低。
仍然有很多人有不同的意见,国家能源研究所高级顾问周凤起,当煤炭价格达到1000元/吨,原煤成本的石油将达到1.0万元/吨,转化为原油价格将是120美元/桶左右。
但是,这些仍然不是业界争论的问题,由于煤炭,石油项目需要大量的水,而水资源短缺的北方地区是一个巨大的挑战。
与申花凌文推出
,还有大量的煤炭,石油项目在排队等候。统计,“十一五”期间计划投资煤曾达到500亿元资金高油价。为了遏制成本,在今年9月,通知国家发展和改革委员会颁布的加强煤变油项目管理。文件明确规定,目前可以继续工作,煤变油示范项目已开始直接与神华集团煤炭液化项目建设的公司。神华宁夏煤业集团与南非萨索尔的董宁宁夏煤炭间接液化项目合作,必须认真进行可行性研究,根据审批程序,未经批准前,将被允许启动。除了这些项目,全部停止实施其他煤转油项目。
“申花凌文是一个符号的最大问题,目前应该有两个原因,一个尚未完全开放工艺联系,另一种是水的问题,目前的原油价格应低于其主理由拖延。“中国煤炭工业协会一名官员说。
利润率大大降低
在北京中国神华灵,股份总裁,去年参加“财经”杂志年会上表示,神华的未来目标包括收购整合相关的铁路和港口资源,适度以外的国际行动;同时,母公司计划将煤化工,煤炭,石油注入上市公司的业务。
根据有关部门,煤炭需求油项目在2010年,仍处于工业化示范阶段,进入后工业化发展阶段。因此,最乐观的预测是,到2010年,神华煤炭石油项目注入上市公司。
资本中国神华黄兵,申花总经理返回A股路演前行动部已透露,神华集团,一般的步骤是:首先,中国神华集团煤炭资产收购,并逐步完成西方的整体上市5公司,宝神,神宁公司,神新公司和其他公司收购,由本集团的电力资产的收购后,对国华能源投资有限公司,该公司的收购逐步完成;的年底,优先购买中国神华煤炭石油有限公司及煤权利化工项目的收购。
现有上市公司为80神华集团现有企业的煤炭产量%的总资产占总资产将有70万吨,未来估计至少有4000万吨煤炭生产能力需要购买。中国神华本周宣布,两名在2008年9月和前三季度主要运营数据显示,1至9月实现净利润219.400亿元,同比增长47.0%,营业收入775.100亿元,同比增长29.0%。煤炭生产和今年前三季度销售公司,较去年同期17.6%和13.0%的增长。
“申花的表现,今年看来是非常好的,但对煤转油项目的本身,就没有办法评估,首先还是没有成功,受国际石油价格的波动,其次,煤炭石油的前景也是值得考虑的问题。说:“中国煤炭工业协会的官员也说。
如果按照8月的价格,鄂尔多斯凌文将获得每人6000元,柴油每吨毛利润100万吨石油的毛利润,金额第一阶段应该达到600.0亿元。在10月底柴油的价格下降,在许多地区,20%,甚至达到5500元/吨,从而测量煤炭石油毛利润将大大减少。08.10.31
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