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Although coal prices have relaxed, coal stocks have plummeted for several days, the industry also exclaimed the coal industry, “inflection point” of the. However, the data provided by Qinhuangdao Port Group, a high calorific value coal prices remained high. Moreover, as the “Dong Chu coal” demand is approaching, coal prices are likely to rebound.

high-heat coal prices will firm

Qinhuangdao Port Group yesterday’s data show that heat of 5000 kcal mixed Ping Cangjia Shanxi Grand 770 ~ 785 yuan / ton, while the calorific value of 4500 kcal Shuozhou ordinary mixed Coal Ping Cangjia 630 ~ 650 yuan / ton, have fallen sharply.

correspond with this is that yesterday’s close, following the lower limit on the 6th of coal stocks across the board, the coal stocks tumbled again, Datong Coal Industry (601001.SH), down 8.24 percent to close at 14.03 yuan, China Shenhua (601088.SH) fell 6.25%, to close at 23.11 yuan, Pingdingshan shares (601666.SH) fell 7.09%, to close at 14.81 yuan, while China Coal Energy (601898.SH) fell 6.73 percent, to close at 9.84 yuan.

“these two days of coal stocks fell in line with international crude oil prices are related does not mean that long-term behavior of coal into the coal Dongchu season, heat the higher coal prices should continue strong.” Coal Information Institute In an interview with a person, “First Financial Daily” said an interview with the case.

“And, because the supply side is more difficult to release, even though the downstream demand growth compared with previous years, a decline of coal tight this winter is still a big probability event.” The person also said.

Qinhuangdao PSA data also showed that heat 6,000 kcal Qinhuangdao Datong excellent mixed Ping Cangjia 970 ~ 990 yuan / ton, while in about a month before the September 10, the price for 1015 ~ 1025 yuan / ton, heat Shanxi excellent 5800 kcal mixed Ping Cangjia 960 ~ 980 yuan / ton, September 10, the price of 1005 ~ 1015 yuan / ton.

“did not drop the number of high quality coal, Qinhuangdao Port is currently imported to Hong Kong are mostly low-quality coal, this part of the price decline sharply.” Qinhuangdao Port Group to a person in charge accept the “First Financial Daily” Interview said.

but also issued a recent Goldman Sachs report said China is expected to contract next year, coal prices will also rise 5%. And this is expected to some of the energy sector and domestic research institutions are quite different.

United Securities also recently released a report, first, there are no sharp fall in oil prices, which for the coal, the status and role of alternative energy is not expected to substantially decline; second, the maintenance of coal at current levels to 11 month, Dong Chu Coal demand has begun to digest inventory, and thus the formation of strong support for coal.

9,10 belongs to a whole month off-season in each of the stocks in these two months are in full-year high, “plus the existence of the Olympic Games in August this year, rush to transport factors, the stock remains to be seen whether it will always remain high. “Joint Securities analyst further said.

lose Qinhuangdao harbor “hidden reason”

As of October 6, Qinhuangdao Port Group coexistence 8.364 million tons of coal, of which 7.988 million tons of coal domestic trade, foreign trade, 376,000 tons of coal, still in the stage of export to Hong Kong.

power plant in North China a responsible person said that the current supply to Hong Kong Qinhuangdao Port has an important reason attributed to the transport, the railway scheme is strong, they planned to complete the monthly traffic, but near the end of the year to complete the transport schemes, the recent PSA Qinhuangdao coal stock has increased by 30%, “but it sure is that the amount of mineral and mining stocks there is no such a rate increase of 30%, resulting in the illusion of excess stored coal in Qinhuangdao Port.” The above official said.

“Under normal circumstances, it should be Hong Kong, mining and transport co-ordination, but due to transportation planning, has led to between the port and mine can not be reconciled.” The responsible person also said.

“So the Hong Kong stock does not mean that mining stocks, as far as I know, in essence, not much mining stocks.” the official stressed.

Moreover, the entry in September, the nation’s more than have occurred in coal mine safety accidents.

in the SAWS “interviews” Liaoning, Henan, Hebei, Shanxi, in charge of production safety work in sub-provincial leadership, the analysts believe that these four provinces are likely to set off a wave of consolidation wave of the security.

Anxin Securities released a report September 22 that, once Shanxi, Liaoning, Henan, Hebei, the four coal-rich province at the same time increase the safety of consolidation efforts in the next 3 months may be again the coal supply is tight situation.

from September 3 to September 6, the Shanxi provincial government has in Linfen and Datong and Changzhi coal enterprises were shut down three places to convene consolidation, mergers and reorganization to promote meetings, respectively, coking coal, thermal coal and anthracite coal region’s resources in three integration of promoting them. Meanwhile, the Shanxi provincial government announced the news of mergers and reorganization of coal mining enterprises to accelerate the implementation of views on the scale of integration, restructuring and other subjects and mining have made clear.

closure of coal enterprises in Shanxi Province in the three places reorganization, merger, reorganization meeting, was the industry that marked the formal integration of Shanxi Coal Mine started. The policy to suppress the bargaining power of small coal mines for five Shanxi Coal Group’s future rapid merger and reorganization of these small coal mines to provide policy assistance.

Anxin Securities also expects to reduce the current coal supply, along with increasing the degree of integration, as well as the arrival of peak coal in the fourth quarter rise in coal prices may also have momentum.

东煤储煤价格预计将在未来反弹

虽然煤炭价格放松，煤炭库存有几天暴跌，业内人士也感叹，煤炭工业，“拐点的”。然而，秦皇岛港集团，高发热量的煤炭价格持续高企提供的数据。此外，由于“董储煤”需求的临近，煤炭价格有可能回升。

高热能煤的价格将公司

秦皇岛港集团在昨日的数据显示，5000大卡混合平Cangjia山西大770热〜785元/吨，而4500大卡的普通混朔州平Cangjia煤炭热值630〜650元/吨，有大幅下降。

与此相对应的是，昨天收盘后，下限的煤炭库存第六一刀切上，煤炭股再次重挫，大同煤业（601001.SH），下跌百分之8.24，收于十四点零三元，中国神华（601088.SH）跌6.25％，收于23.11元，平顶山股份（601666.SH）下跌7.09％，收于十四点八一元，而中国中煤能源（601898.SH）下跌百分之6.73，收于9.84元。

“煤炭股这两天在与国际原油价格下跌有关行并不意味着煤长期煤炭冬初进入本赛季的行为，热量较高的煤炭价格继续强劲。”煤炭信息研究院在与一个人的采访，“第一财经日报”表示，与此案采访。

“而且，由于供应方更难以释放，即使下游需求的增长，与往年相比，下降的煤炭紧张的这个冬天仍是一个大概率事件。”该人士还表示。

秦皇岛标致数据还显示，热量6000大卡秦皇岛大同卓越的混合平Cangjia 970〜990元/吨，而前一个月左右，在9月10日的价格为1015〜一○二五元/吨，热量5800大卡山西优秀的混合平Cangjia 960〜980元/吨，9月10日的1005价格〜1015元/吨。

“没有下降的优质煤数量，秦皇岛港目前输港主要是劣质煤，这部分价格的大幅下降。”秦皇岛港集团负责人在接受“第一财经日报”采访时说。

但最近也发表报告说，高盛预计中国明年的合同，煤炭价格也将上涨5％。这是预期的能源部门和国内一些研究机构有很大的不同。

联合证券最近也发表了一份报告，第一，没有石油价格，对煤炭的地位和作用的替代能源预计不会大幅下降，急剧下降;第二，在目前的水平维持煤11个月，董楚煤炭需求开始消化库存，因此，对煤炭形成强有力的支持。

9,10属于一整个月，在每个股票在这两个月份季节是全年高“，加上奥运会在今年8月的存在，抢运因素，股价依然待观察是否会始终居高不下。“联合证券分析师进一步表示。

输秦皇岛港“隐藏”的理由，

截至10月6日，秦皇岛港务集团共存煤炭8364000吨，其中798.80万吨煤国内贸易，外贸，376,000吨煤，但在出口阶段香港。

在北中国电力厂的负责人说，目前供港秦皇岛港的一个重要原因归咎于交通，铁路计划性强，他们计划完成每月流量，但接近年底完成运输计划，近期标致秦皇岛煤炭库存增加了30％，“但肯定的是，矿产和矿业股数量没有这个30％的速度增加，过多的幻想造成存煤在秦皇岛港。“上述官员说。

在正常情况下“，应该是香港，采矿和运输协调孔配合，但由于交通规划，已导致港口之间和我不甘心。”这位负责人说。

“因此，香港股市并不意味着矿业股，据我所知，在本质上没有太大的矿业股。”这位负责人强调。

此外，进入9月，全国有多个煤矿安全事故发生。
在锯“采访
”辽宁，河南，河北，山西，在安全生产工作的负责分省的领导下，分析人士认为，这四个省份有可能引发巩固安全浪接一浪。

安信证券发布的一份报告9月22日，一旦山西，辽宁，河南，河北四煤在同一时间，丰富的省份增加，在未来3个月整顿后，可再次煤炭供应紧张的安全局势。
从九月三日至9月6号
，山西省政府在临汾，大同，长治煤炭企业已被关闭，粤港澳三地召开整合，兼并重组，以促进会议，分别，炼焦煤，动力煤和无烟煤地区资源三是促进他们的融合。与此同时，山西省政府宣布兼并和重组煤矿企业的新闻，以加快对整合，重组和其他学科和采矿规模的实施意见已明确。

关闭三地的重组，兼并山西省煤炭企业，重组会议，被业界认为标志着山西省煤矿整合正式开始。的政策，以遏制五年山西煤炭集团未来的快速合并和这些小煤矿整顿小煤矿的议价能力，提供政策援助。

安信证券还预计，减少目前的煤炭供应，同时提高集成度，以及煤炭的高峰期，在煤炭价格在第四季度上升的到来也可能有势头。08.10.8

Tags: coal, prices, qinhuangdao, yuan